Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons
The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations an...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:efee19a4953c4e28854e1d6ed34516cf 2023-09-05T13:16:18+02:00 Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons Julienne Stroeve Dirk Notz 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 https://doaj.org/article/efee19a4953c4e28854e1d6ed34516cf EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/efee19a4953c4e28854e1d6ed34516cf Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 10, p 103001 (2018) sea ice Arctic climate change satellite observations climate modeling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 2023-08-13T00:37:31Z The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −3.4%/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO _2 emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO _2 emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m ^2 throughout winter to more than 3 m ^2 throughout summer. Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ± 300 Gt of CO _2 emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of CO _2 emissions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Environmental Research Letters 13 10 103001 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
sea ice Arctic climate change satellite observations climate modeling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
sea ice Arctic climate change satellite observations climate modeling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Julienne Stroeve Dirk Notz Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons |
topic_facet |
sea ice Arctic climate change satellite observations climate modeling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −3.4%/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO _2 emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO _2 emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m ^2 throughout winter to more than 3 m ^2 throughout summer. Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ± 300 Gt of CO _2 emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of CO _2 emissions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Julienne Stroeve Dirk Notz |
author_facet |
Julienne Stroeve Dirk Notz |
author_sort |
Julienne Stroeve |
title |
Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons |
title_short |
Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons |
title_full |
Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons |
title_fullStr |
Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons |
title_sort |
changing state of arctic sea ice across all seasons |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 https://doaj.org/article/efee19a4953c4e28854e1d6ed34516cf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 10, p 103001 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/efee19a4953c4e28854e1d6ed34516cf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
103001 |
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1776197942010445824 |