A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core
A technique for estimating the age–depth relationship in an ice core and evaluating its uncertainty is presented. The age–depth relationship is determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process as a result of the deformation of ice layers. However, since nei...
Published in: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ef54fdbc9c6e485c88aa2ed731d0d1b7 2023-05-15T14:06:39+02:00 A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core S. Nakano K. Suzuki K. Kawamura F. Parrenin T. Higuchi 2016-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-31-2016 https://doaj.org/article/ef54fdbc9c6e485c88aa2ed731d0d1b7 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/23/31/2016/npg-23-31-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 1023-5809 1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-23-31-2016 https://doaj.org/article/ef54fdbc9c6e485c88aa2ed731d0d1b7 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 23, Iss 1, Pp 31-44 (2016) Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-31-2016 2022-12-31T14:49:53Z A technique for estimating the age–depth relationship in an ice core and evaluating its uncertainty is presented. The age–depth relationship is determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process as a result of the deformation of ice layers. However, since neither the accumulation rate nor the thinning process is fully known, it is essential to incorporate observational information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated by making use of age markers and δ 18 O data. The age markers provide reliable age information at several depths. The data of δ 18 O are used as a proxy of the temperature for estimating the accumulation rate. The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method, which is a combination of the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters in the models for the accumulation and thinning process are computed using the Metropolis method, in which the likelihood is obtained with the SMC method, and the posterior distribution for the age as a function of depth is obtained by collecting the samples generated by the SMC method with Metropolis iterations. The use of this PMCMC method enables us to estimate the age–depth relationship without assuming either linearity or Gaussianity. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica ice core Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Dome Fuji ENVELOPE(39.700,39.700,-77.317,-77.317) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 23 1 31 44 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 S. Nakano K. Suzuki K. Kawamura F. Parrenin T. Higuchi A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core |
topic_facet |
Science Q Physics QC1-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
A technique for estimating the age–depth relationship in an ice core and evaluating its uncertainty is presented. The age–depth relationship is determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process as a result of the deformation of ice layers. However, since neither the accumulation rate nor the thinning process is fully known, it is essential to incorporate observational information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated by making use of age markers and δ 18 O data. The age markers provide reliable age information at several depths. The data of δ 18 O are used as a proxy of the temperature for estimating the accumulation rate. The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method, which is a combination of the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters in the models for the accumulation and thinning process are computed using the Metropolis method, in which the likelihood is obtained with the SMC method, and the posterior distribution for the age as a function of depth is obtained by collecting the samples generated by the SMC method with Metropolis iterations. The use of this PMCMC method enables us to estimate the age–depth relationship without assuming either linearity or Gaussianity. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Nakano K. Suzuki K. Kawamura F. Parrenin T. Higuchi |
author_facet |
S. Nakano K. Suzuki K. Kawamura F. Parrenin T. Higuchi |
author_sort |
S. Nakano |
title |
A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core |
title_short |
A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core |
title_full |
A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core |
title_fullStr |
A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core |
title_full_unstemmed |
A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core |
title_sort |
sequential bayesian approach for the estimation of the age–depth relationship of the dome fuji ice core |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-31-2016 https://doaj.org/article/ef54fdbc9c6e485c88aa2ed731d0d1b7 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(39.700,39.700,-77.317,-77.317) |
geographic |
Dome Fuji |
geographic_facet |
Dome Fuji |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica ice core |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica ice core |
op_source |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol 23, Iss 1, Pp 31-44 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/23/31/2016/npg-23-31-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1023-5809 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7946 1023-5809 1607-7946 doi:10.5194/npg-23-31-2016 https://doaj.org/article/ef54fdbc9c6e485c88aa2ed731d0d1b7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-31-2016 |
container_title |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
31 |
op_container_end_page |
44 |
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1766278651680129024 |