Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October
The present study assesses the lead–lag teleconnection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the December-to-February mean boreal winter climate with respect to the predictability of 10 m wind speed and significant wave heights in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Lead–lag correlations exce...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 https://doaj.org/article/ef1b26d59df946f3bf685c617d3fd4b3 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ef1b26d59df946f3bf685c617d3fd4b3 2023-09-05T13:21:24+02:00 Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October Swen Brands 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 https://doaj.org/article/ef1b26d59df946f3bf685c617d3fd4b3 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ef1b26d59df946f3bf685c617d3fd4b3 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 4, p 045006 (2014) seasonal forecasting teleconnections snow waves wind North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 2023-08-13T00:37:22Z The present study assesses the lead–lag teleconnection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the December-to-February mean boreal winter climate with respect to the predictability of 10 m wind speed and significant wave heights in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Lead–lag correlations exceeding a magnitude of 0.8 are found for the short time period of 1997/98–2012/13 ( n = 16) for which daily satellite-sensed snow cover data is available to date. The respective cross-validated hindcast skill obtained from using linear regression as a statistical forecasting technique is similarly large in magnitude. When using a longer but degraded time series of weekly snow cover data for calculating the predictor variable (1979/80–2011/12, n = 34), hindcast skill decreases but yet remains significant over a large fraction of the study area. In addition, Monte-Carlo field significance tests reveal that the patterns of skill are globally significant. The proposed method might be used to make forecast decisions for wind and wave energy generation, seafaring, fishery and offshore drilling. To exemplify its potential suitability for the latter sector, it is additionally applied to DJF frequencies of significant wave heights exceeding 2 m, a threshold value above which mooring conditions at oil platforms are no longer optimal. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 9 4 045006 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
seasonal forecasting teleconnections snow waves wind North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
seasonal forecasting teleconnections snow waves wind North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Swen Brands Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October |
topic_facet |
seasonal forecasting teleconnections snow waves wind North Atlantic Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The present study assesses the lead–lag teleconnection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the December-to-February mean boreal winter climate with respect to the predictability of 10 m wind speed and significant wave heights in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Lead–lag correlations exceeding a magnitude of 0.8 are found for the short time period of 1997/98–2012/13 ( n = 16) for which daily satellite-sensed snow cover data is available to date. The respective cross-validated hindcast skill obtained from using linear regression as a statistical forecasting technique is similarly large in magnitude. When using a longer but degraded time series of weekly snow cover data for calculating the predictor variable (1979/80–2011/12, n = 34), hindcast skill decreases but yet remains significant over a large fraction of the study area. In addition, Monte-Carlo field significance tests reveal that the patterns of skill are globally significant. The proposed method might be used to make forecast decisions for wind and wave energy generation, seafaring, fishery and offshore drilling. To exemplify its potential suitability for the latter sector, it is additionally applied to DJF frequencies of significant wave heights exceeding 2 m, a threshold value above which mooring conditions at oil platforms are no longer optimal. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Swen Brands |
author_facet |
Swen Brands |
author_sort |
Swen Brands |
title |
Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October |
title_short |
Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October |
title_full |
Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October |
title_fullStr |
Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic sector from Eurasian snow cover in October |
title_sort |
predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the north atlantic sector from eurasian snow cover in october |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 https://doaj.org/article/ef1b26d59df946f3bf685c617d3fd4b3 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 4, p 045006 (2014) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ef1b26d59df946f3bf685c617d3fd4b3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
045006 |
_version_ |
1776202009772294144 |