Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods
Global warming increases the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, but the changes in climate extremes over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during different periods are unknown. Changes in surface temperature extreme indices (TN10p, TX10p, TN90p, TX90p, CSDI, WSDI, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx and DTR) a...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:eef9f1e09a55498999eed3ae0f3c95a5 2023-05-15T13:36:15+02:00 Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods Yicheng Wang Bing Xu Xiang Qin Aihong Xie Jiangping Zhu 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/eef9f1e09a55498999eed3ae0f3c95a5 EN eng CSIRO Publishing https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/pdf/ES22008 https://doaj.org/toc/2206-5865 2206-5865 https://doaj.org/article/eef9f1e09a55498999eed3ae0f3c95a5 Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, Vol 72, Iss 3, Pp 165-178 (2022) Antarctica climate CMIP6 ETCCDI extreme indices extreme temperature Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2022 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-30T19:29:54Z Global warming increases the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, but the changes in climate extremes over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during different periods are unknown. Changes in surface temperature extreme indices (TN10p, TX10p, TN90p, TX90p, CSDI, WSDI, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx and DTR) are assessed during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, based on the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The extreme indices, excluding TXn and DTR, illustrate the opposite trend in the two periods in SSP1-2.6 over the AIS. Generally, the changes in extreme indices reflect the continued warming over AIS in the future, and the warming is projected to intensify in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The variations in the extreme indices exhibit regional differences. The Antarctic Peninsula displays rapid changes in TNn, TXn and DTR. In SSP5-8.5, the magnitudes of all climate index tendencies are greater during 2071–2100 than 2021–2050. The variations in TX10p, TX90p, TN10p, TN90p, WSDI and CSDI are faster in the Antarctic inland than in the other regions over the AIS. However, the decrease in the DTR is concentrated along the AIS coast and extends to the interior region, whereas the increasing trend occurs in the Antarctic inland. In West AIS, TX90p and TN90p rapidly increase during 2021–2050, whereas the rapid changing signals disappear in this region in 2071–2100. The dramatic changes in TNn, TXn and DTR occur at the Ross Ice Shelf during 2071–2100, indicating an increased risk of collapse. For TNx and TXx, the degree of warming in the later part of the 21st century is divided by the transantarctic mountains, and greater changes appear on the eastern side. Generally, Antarctic amplification of TNn, TXn and DTR is observed except under SSP1-2.6. In addition, TNx and TXx amplifications occur in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ross Ice Shelf Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ross Ice Shelf The Antarctic Transantarctic Mountains |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctica climate CMIP6 ETCCDI extreme indices extreme temperature Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctica climate CMIP6 ETCCDI extreme indices extreme temperature Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Yicheng Wang Bing Xu Xiang Qin Aihong Xie Jiangping Zhu Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods |
topic_facet |
Antarctica climate CMIP6 ETCCDI extreme indices extreme temperature Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Global warming increases the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, but the changes in climate extremes over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during different periods are unknown. Changes in surface temperature extreme indices (TN10p, TX10p, TN90p, TX90p, CSDI, WSDI, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx and DTR) are assessed during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, based on the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The extreme indices, excluding TXn and DTR, illustrate the opposite trend in the two periods in SSP1-2.6 over the AIS. Generally, the changes in extreme indices reflect the continued warming over AIS in the future, and the warming is projected to intensify in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The variations in the extreme indices exhibit regional differences. The Antarctic Peninsula displays rapid changes in TNn, TXn and DTR. In SSP5-8.5, the magnitudes of all climate index tendencies are greater during 2071–2100 than 2021–2050. The variations in TX10p, TX90p, TN10p, TN90p, WSDI and CSDI are faster in the Antarctic inland than in the other regions over the AIS. However, the decrease in the DTR is concentrated along the AIS coast and extends to the interior region, whereas the increasing trend occurs in the Antarctic inland. In West AIS, TX90p and TN90p rapidly increase during 2021–2050, whereas the rapid changing signals disappear in this region in 2071–2100. The dramatic changes in TNn, TXn and DTR occur at the Ross Ice Shelf during 2071–2100, indicating an increased risk of collapse. For TNx and TXx, the degree of warming in the later part of the 21st century is divided by the transantarctic mountains, and greater changes appear on the eastern side. Generally, Antarctic amplification of TNn, TXn and DTR is observed except under SSP1-2.6. In addition, TNx and TXx amplifications occur in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yicheng Wang Bing Xu Xiang Qin Aihong Xie Jiangping Zhu |
author_facet |
Yicheng Wang Bing Xu Xiang Qin Aihong Xie Jiangping Zhu |
author_sort |
Yicheng Wang |
title |
Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods |
title_short |
Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods |
title_full |
Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods |
title_fullStr |
Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected changes in Antarctic daily temperature in CMIP6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods |
title_sort |
projected changes in antarctic daily temperature in cmip6 under different warming scenarios during two future periods |
publisher |
CSIRO Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/eef9f1e09a55498999eed3ae0f3c95a5 |
geographic |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ross Ice Shelf The Antarctic Transantarctic Mountains |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ross Ice Shelf The Antarctic Transantarctic Mountains |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ross Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ross Ice Shelf |
op_source |
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, Vol 72, Iss 3, Pp 165-178 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/pdf/ES22008 https://doaj.org/toc/2206-5865 2206-5865 https://doaj.org/article/eef9f1e09a55498999eed3ae0f3c95a5 |
_version_ |
1766076047554510848 |