Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa.
BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is caused by a viral haemorrhagic arenavirus that affects two to three million people in West Africa, causing a mortality of between 5,000 and 10,000 each year. The natural reservoir of Lassa virus is the multi-mammate rat Mastomys natalensis, which lives in houses and surrou...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:eec8f655a88340bb859172e4e905218e 2023-05-15T15:16:45+02:00 Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. Elisabeth Fichet-Calvet David John Rogers 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000388 https://doaj.org/article/eec8f655a88340bb859172e4e905218e EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2644764?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000388 https://doaj.org/article/eec8f655a88340bb859172e4e905218e PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 3, Iss 3, p e388 (2009) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2009 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000388 2022-12-31T12:29:31Z BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is caused by a viral haemorrhagic arenavirus that affects two to three million people in West Africa, causing a mortality of between 5,000 and 10,000 each year. The natural reservoir of Lassa virus is the multi-mammate rat Mastomys natalensis, which lives in houses and surrounding fields. With the aim of gaining more information to control this disease, we here carry out a spatial analysis of Lassa fever data from human cases and infected rodent hosts covering the period 1965-2007. Information on contemporary environmental conditions (temperature, rainfall, vegetation) was derived from NASA Terra MODIS satellite sensor data and other sources and for elevation from the GTOPO30 surface for the region from Senegal to the Congo. All multi-temporal data were analysed using temporal Fourier techniques to generate images of means, amplitudes and phases which were used as the predictor variables in the models. In addition, meteorological rainfall data collected between 1951 and 1989 were used to generate a synoptic rainfall surface for the same region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three different analyses (models) are presented, one superimposing Lassa fever outbreaks on the mean rainfall surface (Model 1) and the other two using non-linear discriminant analytical techniques. Model 2 selected variables in a step-wise inclusive fashion, and Model 3 used an information-theoretic approach in which many different random combinations of 10 variables were fitted to the Lassa fever data. Three combinations of absenceratiopresence clusters were used in each of Models 2 and 3, the 2 absenceratio1 presence cluster combination giving what appeared to be the best result. Model 1 showed that the recorded outbreaks of Lassa fever in human populations occurred in zones receiving between 1,500 and 3,000 mm rainfall annually. Rainfall, and to a much lesser extent temperature variables, were most strongly selected in both Models 2 and 3, and neither vegetation nor altitude seemed particularly important. Both ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 3 3 e388 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Elisabeth Fichet-Calvet David John Rogers Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is caused by a viral haemorrhagic arenavirus that affects two to three million people in West Africa, causing a mortality of between 5,000 and 10,000 each year. The natural reservoir of Lassa virus is the multi-mammate rat Mastomys natalensis, which lives in houses and surrounding fields. With the aim of gaining more information to control this disease, we here carry out a spatial analysis of Lassa fever data from human cases and infected rodent hosts covering the period 1965-2007. Information on contemporary environmental conditions (temperature, rainfall, vegetation) was derived from NASA Terra MODIS satellite sensor data and other sources and for elevation from the GTOPO30 surface for the region from Senegal to the Congo. All multi-temporal data were analysed using temporal Fourier techniques to generate images of means, amplitudes and phases which were used as the predictor variables in the models. In addition, meteorological rainfall data collected between 1951 and 1989 were used to generate a synoptic rainfall surface for the same region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three different analyses (models) are presented, one superimposing Lassa fever outbreaks on the mean rainfall surface (Model 1) and the other two using non-linear discriminant analytical techniques. Model 2 selected variables in a step-wise inclusive fashion, and Model 3 used an information-theoretic approach in which many different random combinations of 10 variables were fitted to the Lassa fever data. Three combinations of absenceratiopresence clusters were used in each of Models 2 and 3, the 2 absenceratio1 presence cluster combination giving what appeared to be the best result. Model 1 showed that the recorded outbreaks of Lassa fever in human populations occurred in zones receiving between 1,500 and 3,000 mm rainfall annually. Rainfall, and to a much lesser extent temperature variables, were most strongly selected in both Models 2 and 3, and neither vegetation nor altitude seemed particularly important. Both ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Elisabeth Fichet-Calvet David John Rogers |
author_facet |
Elisabeth Fichet-Calvet David John Rogers |
author_sort |
Elisabeth Fichet-Calvet |
title |
Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. |
title_short |
Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. |
title_full |
Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. |
title_fullStr |
Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk maps of Lassa fever in West Africa. |
title_sort |
risk maps of lassa fever in west africa. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000388 https://doaj.org/article/eec8f655a88340bb859172e4e905218e |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 3, Iss 3, p e388 (2009) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2644764?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000388 https://doaj.org/article/eec8f655a88340bb859172e4e905218e |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000388 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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e388 |
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