Bivariate Modelling of a Teleconnection Index and Extreme Rainfall in a Small North Atlantic Island

• Published in: Climate
• Main Authors: Luis Angel Espinosa, Maria Manuela Portela, João Dehon Pontes Filho, Martina Zelenakova
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2021
• Subjects: North Atlantic Oscillation; winter extreme rainfall; Madeira Island; copulas; teleconnection; climate variability; Science; Q; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9050086; https://doaj.org/article/eec1cf3ac1a04b7da0e98100c320e303

This paper explores practical applications of bivariate modelling via copulas of two likely dependent random variables, i.e., of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) coupled with extreme rainfall on the small island of Madeira, Portugal. Madeira, due to its small size (∼740 km <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics></math> ), very pronounced mountain landscape, and location in the North Atlantic, experiences a wide range of rainfall regimes, or microclimates, which hamper the analyses of extreme rainfall. Previous studies showed that the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme rainfall is at its largest in the North Atlantic sector, with the likelihood of increased rainfall events from December through February, particularly during negative NAO phases. Thus, a copula-based approach was adopted for teleconnection, aiming at assigning return periods of daily values of an NAO index (NAOI) coupled with extreme daily rainfalls—for the period from December 1967 to February 2017—at six representative rain gauges of the island. The results show that (i) bivariate copulas describing the dependence characteristics of the underlying joint distributions may provide useful analytical expressions of the return periods of the coupled previous NAOI and extreme rainfall and (ii) that recent years show signs of increasing climate variability with more anomalous daily negative NAOI along with higher extreme rainfall events. These findings highlight the importance of multivariate modelling for teleconnections of prominent patterns of climate variability, such as the NAO, to extreme rainfall in North Atlantic regions, especially in small islands that are highly vulnerable to the effects of abrupt climate variability.