Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC
To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIE AO ) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e 2023-05-15T14:57:57+02:00 Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/675/2018/tc-12-675-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 675-683 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 2022-12-30T20:53:21Z To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIE AO ) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIE AO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIE AO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Chukchi North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea The Cryosphere 12 2 675 683 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIE AO ) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIE AO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIE AO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii |
author_facet |
J. Ono H. Tatebe Y. Komuro M. I. Nodzu M. Ishii |
author_sort |
J. Ono |
title |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_short |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_full |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_fullStr |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC |
title_sort |
mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the arctic ocean in miroc |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Chukchi North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Chukchi North Atlantic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 675-683 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/675/2018/tc-12-675-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/eeb67b5feb384863970fd3282f62f07e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
675 |
op_container_end_page |
683 |
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1766330044683124736 |