Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability
Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we presen...
Published in: | Atmosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080909 https://doaj.org/article/eea593e93ff442cc890fac8fb58f3d26 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:eea593e93ff442cc890fac8fb58f3d26 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:eea593e93ff442cc890fac8fb58f3d26 2024-09-30T14:31:20+00:00 Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability Andrew Mercer Kenneth Swan Adonte Knight 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080909 https://doaj.org/article/eea593e93ff442cc890fac8fb58f3d26 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/8/909 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos15080909 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/eea593e93ff442cc890fac8fb58f3d26 Atmosphere, Vol 15, Iss 8, p 909 (2024) tornado outbreak ENSO NAO teleconnections outbreak intensity index Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080909 2024-09-02T15:34:38Z Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we present a TO definition based on a spatially cohesive and distinct region of tornado activity and present a TO intensity index using tornado characteristics within the TO region. In developing this index, we present a support vector regression-based detrending methodology to remove the secular trends within tornado reporting. The resulting TO definition suggests a decline in TO activity of roughly 1 TO per 4–5 years, with a similar decline in TO intensity. In addition, the relationship between this new quantification of TOs and common North American interannual and monthly climate variability indices is explored, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific North American Oscillation. In general, the links between these teleconnections and TO frequency and intensity were minimal (and sometimes in opposition when comparing TO frequency and intensity), but interesting patterns emerged that may offer an initial pathway to exploring longer-term TO predictability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Atmosphere 15 8 909 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tornado outbreak ENSO NAO teleconnections outbreak intensity index Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
tornado outbreak ENSO NAO teleconnections outbreak intensity index Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Andrew Mercer Kenneth Swan Adonte Knight Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability |
topic_facet |
tornado outbreak ENSO NAO teleconnections outbreak intensity index Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we present a TO definition based on a spatially cohesive and distinct region of tornado activity and present a TO intensity index using tornado characteristics within the TO region. In developing this index, we present a support vector regression-based detrending methodology to remove the secular trends within tornado reporting. The resulting TO definition suggests a decline in TO activity of roughly 1 TO per 4–5 years, with a similar decline in TO intensity. In addition, the relationship between this new quantification of TOs and common North American interannual and monthly climate variability indices is explored, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific North American Oscillation. In general, the links between these teleconnections and TO frequency and intensity were minimal (and sometimes in opposition when comparing TO frequency and intensity), but interesting patterns emerged that may offer an initial pathway to exploring longer-term TO predictability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andrew Mercer Kenneth Swan Adonte Knight |
author_facet |
Andrew Mercer Kenneth Swan Adonte Knight |
author_sort |
Andrew Mercer |
title |
Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability |
title_short |
Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability |
title_full |
Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability |
title_sort |
quantifying tornado outbreak intensity and frequency relationships with interannual and monthly variability |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080909 https://doaj.org/article/eea593e93ff442cc890fac8fb58f3d26 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 15, Iss 8, p 909 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/8/909 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos15080909 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/eea593e93ff442cc890fac8fb58f3d26 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080909 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
909 |
_version_ |
1811635939008577536 |