Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle
Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11 year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 https://doaj.org/article/edd2ea616c634d94841a9aa913d1a4e3 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:edd2ea616c634d94841a9aa913d1a4e3 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:edd2ea616c634d94841a9aa913d1a4e3 2023-09-05T13:21:23+02:00 Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle Hedi Ma Haishan Chen Lesley Gray Liming Zhou Xing Li Ruili Wang Siguang Zhu 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 https://doaj.org/article/edd2ea616c634d94841a9aa913d1a4e3 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/edd2ea616c634d94841a9aa913d1a4e3 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 3, p 034007 (2018) 11 year solar cycle North Atlantic Oscillation lagged responses Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 2023-08-13T00:37:31Z Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11 year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of long-term climate data sets dating back to the late 19th century, however, suggest a mean sea level pressure (mslp) response that lags the SC by 2–4 years in the southern node of the NAO (i.e. Azores region). To understand the conflicting nature and cause of these time dependencies in the SC surface response, the present study employs a lead/lag multi-linear regression technique with a sliding window of 44 years over the period 1751–2016. Results confirm previous analyses, in which the average response for the whole time period features a statistically significant 2–4 year lagged mslp response centered over the Azores region. Overall, the lagged nature of Azores mslp response is generally consistent in time. Stronger and statistically significant SC signals tend to appear in the periods when the SC forcing amplitudes are relatively larger. Individual month analysis indicates the consistent lagged response in December–January–February average arises primarily from early winter months (i.e. December and January), which has been associated with ocean feedback processes that involve reinforcement by anomalies from the previous winter. Additional analysis suggests that the synchronous NAO-like response in recent decades arises primarily from late winter (February), possibly reflecting a result of strong internal noise. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 13 3 034007 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
11 year solar cycle North Atlantic Oscillation lagged responses Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
11 year solar cycle North Atlantic Oscillation lagged responses Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Hedi Ma Haishan Chen Lesley Gray Liming Zhou Xing Li Ruili Wang Siguang Zhu Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle |
topic_facet |
11 year solar cycle North Atlantic Oscillation lagged responses Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11 year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of long-term climate data sets dating back to the late 19th century, however, suggest a mean sea level pressure (mslp) response that lags the SC by 2–4 years in the southern node of the NAO (i.e. Azores region). To understand the conflicting nature and cause of these time dependencies in the SC surface response, the present study employs a lead/lag multi-linear regression technique with a sliding window of 44 years over the period 1751–2016. Results confirm previous analyses, in which the average response for the whole time period features a statistically significant 2–4 year lagged mslp response centered over the Azores region. Overall, the lagged nature of Azores mslp response is generally consistent in time. Stronger and statistically significant SC signals tend to appear in the periods when the SC forcing amplitudes are relatively larger. Individual month analysis indicates the consistent lagged response in December–January–February average arises primarily from early winter months (i.e. December and January), which has been associated with ocean feedback processes that involve reinforcement by anomalies from the previous winter. Additional analysis suggests that the synchronous NAO-like response in recent decades arises primarily from late winter (February), possibly reflecting a result of strong internal noise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hedi Ma Haishan Chen Lesley Gray Liming Zhou Xing Li Ruili Wang Siguang Zhu |
author_facet |
Hedi Ma Haishan Chen Lesley Gray Liming Zhou Xing Li Ruili Wang Siguang Zhu |
author_sort |
Hedi Ma |
title |
Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle |
title_short |
Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle |
title_full |
Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle |
title_fullStr |
Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle |
title_sort |
changing response of the north atlantic/european winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 https://doaj.org/article/edd2ea616c634d94841a9aa913d1a4e3 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 3, p 034007 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/edd2ea616c634d94841a9aa913d1a4e3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034007 |
_version_ |
1776201989553651712 |