Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic
In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially...
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Canadian Science Publishing
2024
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 https://doaj.org/article/ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab3027 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab3027 2024-02-11T09:59:15+01:00 Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic Agathe Allibert François Viard Caroline C. Sauvé Audrey Simon Erin Elizabeth Rees Patrick Leighton 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 https://doaj.org/article/ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab3027 EN FR eng fre Canadian Science Publishing https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 https://doaj.org/toc/2368-7460 doi:10.1139/AS-2023-0024 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab3027 Arctic Science (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 2024-01-14T01:36:58Z In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based stochastic epidemiological model and performed an uncertainty analysis to better understand Arctic fox rabies dynamics. Rabies persisted in 25.68% of model simulations, with several variables having significant impact on rabies persistence: probability of rabies transmission, spatial and temporal distribution food resources, mean litter size and variability of rabies incubation periods. Where rabies is endemic, we identified 5 key parameters for rabies dynamics: spatiotemporal resource distribution, probability of birth for adult females, mean and standard deviation of litter size, and incubation period of rabies. Our study demonstrates that Arctic rabies can persist in its primary host under conditions consistent with existing empirical data in the literature and showed the important role played by the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. Finally, our results suggest that the ecological impacts of rapid climate warming could decrease the overall persistence of rabies in the Arctic and the associated health risk in Arctic communities. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Fox Arctic Vulpes lagopus Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Science |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English French |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 Agathe Allibert François Viard Caroline C. Sauvé Audrey Simon Erin Elizabeth Rees Patrick Leighton Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Environmental engineering TA170-171 |
description |
In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based stochastic epidemiological model and performed an uncertainty analysis to better understand Arctic fox rabies dynamics. Rabies persisted in 25.68% of model simulations, with several variables having significant impact on rabies persistence: probability of rabies transmission, spatial and temporal distribution food resources, mean litter size and variability of rabies incubation periods. Where rabies is endemic, we identified 5 key parameters for rabies dynamics: spatiotemporal resource distribution, probability of birth for adult females, mean and standard deviation of litter size, and incubation period of rabies. Our study demonstrates that Arctic rabies can persist in its primary host under conditions consistent with existing empirical data in the literature and showed the important role played by the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. Finally, our results suggest that the ecological impacts of rapid climate warming could decrease the overall persistence of rabies in the Arctic and the associated health risk in Arctic communities. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Agathe Allibert François Viard Caroline C. Sauvé Audrey Simon Erin Elizabeth Rees Patrick Leighton |
author_facet |
Agathe Allibert François Viard Caroline C. Sauvé Audrey Simon Erin Elizabeth Rees Patrick Leighton |
author_sort |
Agathe Allibert |
title |
Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
title_short |
Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
title_full |
Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
title_sort |
impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the arctic |
publisher |
Canadian Science Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 https://doaj.org/article/ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab3027 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Fox Arctic Vulpes lagopus |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Fox Arctic Vulpes lagopus |
op_source |
Arctic Science (2024) |
op_relation |
https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 https://doaj.org/toc/2368-7460 doi:10.1139/AS-2023-0024 2368-7460 https://doaj.org/article/ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab3027 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 |
container_title |
Arctic Science |
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1790595208282374144 |