Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective
Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 https://doaj.org/article/ed60a79ff31144a5bb84d51dba73c672 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ed60a79ff31144a5bb84d51dba73c672 2023-06-11T04:14:49+02:00 Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective Paul A Nicknish John C H Chiang Aixue Hu William R Boos 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 https://doaj.org/article/ed60a79ff31144a5bb84d51dba73c672 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/ed60a79ff31144a5bb84d51dba73c672 Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 2, Iss 1, p 015007 (2023) tropical precipitation precipitation shifts energy flux potential climate change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 2023-05-07T00:34:43Z Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Environmental Research: Climate 2 1 015007 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tropical precipitation precipitation shifts energy flux potential climate change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
tropical precipitation precipitation shifts energy flux potential climate change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Paul A Nicknish John C H Chiang Aixue Hu William R Boos Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective |
topic_facet |
tropical precipitation precipitation shifts energy flux potential climate change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Paul A Nicknish John C H Chiang Aixue Hu William R Boos |
author_facet |
Paul A Nicknish John C H Chiang Aixue Hu William R Boos |
author_sort |
Paul A Nicknish |
title |
Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective |
title_short |
Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective |
title_full |
Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective |
title_fullStr |
Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective |
title_full_unstemmed |
Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective |
title_sort |
regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 https://doaj.org/article/ed60a79ff31144a5bb84d51dba73c672 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 2, Iss 1, p 015007 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/ed60a79ff31144a5bb84d51dba73c672 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acb9b0 |
container_title |
Environmental Research: Climate |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
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015007 |
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1768371142191480832 |