Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections
Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from e...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ecc8879a4eca4262943063ed691169a7 2023-09-05T13:22:11+02:00 Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections K L Ricke J C Orr K Schneider K Caldeira 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 https://doaj.org/article/ecc8879a4eca4262943063ed691169a7 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ecc8879a4eca4262943063ed691169a7 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 3, p 034003 (2013) CMIP5 ocean acidification coral reefs Earth System Models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 2023-08-13T00:37:40Z Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa < 3 by the end of the 21st century and the reefs’ long-term fate is independent of their specific saturation threshold. However, under scenarios with significant CO _2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 8 3 034003 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
CMIP5 ocean acidification coral reefs Earth System Models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
CMIP5 ocean acidification coral reefs Earth System Models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 K L Ricke J C Orr K Schneider K Caldeira Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections |
topic_facet |
CMIP5 ocean acidification coral reefs Earth System Models Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa < 3 by the end of the 21st century and the reefs’ long-term fate is independent of their specific saturation threshold. However, under scenarios with significant CO _2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
K L Ricke J C Orr K Schneider K Caldeira |
author_facet |
K L Ricke J C Orr K Schneider K Caldeira |
author_sort |
K L Ricke |
title |
Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections |
title_short |
Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections |
title_full |
Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections |
title_fullStr |
Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections |
title_sort |
risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 https://doaj.org/article/ecc8879a4eca4262943063ed691169a7 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 3, p 034003 (2013) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ecc8879a4eca4262943063ed691169a7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034003 |
_version_ |
1776202724289806336 |