The role of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on variations of monthly Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases at the cayenne general hospital, 1996-2009, French Guiana

• Published in: Malaria Journal
• Main Authors: Carme Bernard, Nacher Mathieu, Adenis Antoine, Hanf Matthieu
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2011
• Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Arctic; Soi
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-10-100; https://doaj.org/article/ebd6381a4fa241d398b8c59542329be9

Abstract Background Malaria remains a serious problem in French Guiana, which is at potential risk for drought linked with the El Niño Event and where there could be a risk of malaria epidemic after the onset of an El Niño event. Methods A time series analysis using ARIMA was developed to investigate temporal correlations between the monthly Plasmodium falciparum case numbers and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the Cayenne General Hospital between 1996 and 2009. Results The data showed a positive influence of El Niño at a lag of three months on P. falciparum cases (p < 0.001). The incorporation of SOI data in the ARIMA model reduced the AIC by 4%. Conclusions Although there is a statistical link, the predictive value of ENSO to modulate prevention intervention seems marginal in French Guiana. However, additional work should refine the regional dependence of malaria on the ENSO state.