VARIABILITY AND INTERRELATION OF THE BASIC CLIMATE INDICES FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC: TRENDS, CLIMATE SHIFTS, SPECTRA, CORRELATIONS

• Published in: Izvestiya TINRO
• Main Authors: G. V. Khen, E. I. Ustinova, Yu. D. Sorokin
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Transactions of the Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography 2019
• Subjects: северная части тихого океана; климатические индексы; климатические сдвиги; спектры; корреляция; Aquaculture. Fisheries. Angling; SH1-691; Arctic; Pacific; aleutian low
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.26428/1606-9919-2019-199-163-178; https://doaj.org/article/eba88f65c12340bba380b56106426e5e

The study is continuing, which first results were published in 2019 [Khen et al., 2019]. The main patterns of long-term variability are considered for selected climate indices in the North Pacific and links between them are identified on the common methodological basis. The following indices are analyzed: AO (Arctic Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), Nino 3.4 (index of El-Nino — South Oscillation), ALPI (Aleutian Low Pressure index), NPI (North Pacific index), PNA (Pacific/North American index), SHI (Siberian High index), and WP (West Pacific index). Their time-series are provided on websites of the world climate centers, with exception of the Siberian High index that was calculated from the reanalysis data on the sea level pressure provided by the USA National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) — National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for 1950–2018. Data were analysed using standard statistical methods. Regime shifts are detected using Rodionov’s method of sequential regime shift detection including the regime shift index (RSI) and tools of automatic detection of the regime shifts with improved performance at the ends of time series. Variations of all indices since the middle 20th century correspond to warming that is not monotonous but combines phases of quick transition from one climatic regime to another — climate shifts and periods of relatively stable state between them. The most important climate shifts happened in 1977 and 1989 and they were noted for majority of the considered indices. Values of the indices heightened in the former shift and slightly lowered in the latter one, except of NPI that had opposite changes. PDO, WP and NPI had another positive shift in the recent years (2015–2017) that allows to assume transition to a new climate regime which will be warmer than the previous one in the last two decades. Long-term periodicity coincided with the 19-year cycle of lunar declination is revealed for PDO, ALPI, NPI and PNA; its spectral power amplifies considerably ...