Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices
With sea level rise accelerating and coastal populations increasing, the requirement of coastal managers and scientists to produce accurate predictions of shoreline change is becoming ever more urgent. Waves are the primary driver of coastal evolution, and much of the interannual variability of the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:eb5d88a7463e455791c8fc0b0ae1f7e5 2023-05-15T17:35:22+02:00 Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices Dan Hilton Mark Davidson Tim Scott 2020-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8080616 https://doaj.org/article/eb5d88a7463e455791c8fc0b0ae1f7e5 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/8/8/616 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse8080616 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/eb5d88a7463e455791c8fc0b0ae1f7e5 Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 8, Iss 616, p 616 (2020) coastal climate erosion Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8080616 2022-12-31T06:14:18Z With sea level rise accelerating and coastal populations increasing, the requirement of coastal managers and scientists to produce accurate predictions of shoreline change is becoming ever more urgent. Waves are the primary driver of coastal evolution, and much of the interannual variability of the wave conditions in the Northeast Atlantic can be explained by broadscale patterns in atmospheric circulation. Two of the dominant climate indices that capture the wave climate in western Europe’s coastal regions are the ‘Western Europe Pressure Anomaly’ (WEPA) and ‘North Atlantic Oscillation’ (NAO). This study utilises a shoreline prediction model (ShoreFor) which is forced by synthetic waves to investigate whether forecasts can be improved when the synthetic wave generation algorithm is informed by relevant climate indices. The climate index-informed predictions were tested against a baseline case where no climate indices were considered over eight winter periods at Perranporth, UK. A simple adaption to the synthetic wave-generating process has allowed for monthly climate index values to be considered before producing the 10 3 random waves used to force the model. The results show that improved seasonal predictions of shoreline change are possible if climate indices are known a priori. For NAO, modest gains were made over the uninformed ShoreFor model, with a reduction in average root mean square error (RMSE) of 7% but an unchanged skill score. For WEPA, the gains were more significant, with the average RMSE 12% lower and skill score 5% higher. Highlighted is the importance of selecting an appropriate index for the site location. This work suggests that better forecasts of shoreline change could be gained from consideration of a priori knowledge of climatic indices in the generation of synthetic waves. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 8 8 616 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
coastal climate erosion Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
coastal climate erosion Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 Dan Hilton Mark Davidson Tim Scott Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices |
topic_facet |
coastal climate erosion Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
With sea level rise accelerating and coastal populations increasing, the requirement of coastal managers and scientists to produce accurate predictions of shoreline change is becoming ever more urgent. Waves are the primary driver of coastal evolution, and much of the interannual variability of the wave conditions in the Northeast Atlantic can be explained by broadscale patterns in atmospheric circulation. Two of the dominant climate indices that capture the wave climate in western Europe’s coastal regions are the ‘Western Europe Pressure Anomaly’ (WEPA) and ‘North Atlantic Oscillation’ (NAO). This study utilises a shoreline prediction model (ShoreFor) which is forced by synthetic waves to investigate whether forecasts can be improved when the synthetic wave generation algorithm is informed by relevant climate indices. The climate index-informed predictions were tested against a baseline case where no climate indices were considered over eight winter periods at Perranporth, UK. A simple adaption to the synthetic wave-generating process has allowed for monthly climate index values to be considered before producing the 10 3 random waves used to force the model. The results show that improved seasonal predictions of shoreline change are possible if climate indices are known a priori. For NAO, modest gains were made over the uninformed ShoreFor model, with a reduction in average root mean square error (RMSE) of 7% but an unchanged skill score. For WEPA, the gains were more significant, with the average RMSE 12% lower and skill score 5% higher. Highlighted is the importance of selecting an appropriate index for the site location. This work suggests that better forecasts of shoreline change could be gained from consideration of a priori knowledge of climatic indices in the generation of synthetic waves. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dan Hilton Mark Davidson Tim Scott |
author_facet |
Dan Hilton Mark Davidson Tim Scott |
author_sort |
Dan Hilton |
title |
Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices |
title_short |
Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices |
title_full |
Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal Predictions of Shoreline Change, Informed by Climate Indices |
title_sort |
seasonal predictions of shoreline change, informed by climate indices |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8080616 https://doaj.org/article/eb5d88a7463e455791c8fc0b0ae1f7e5 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 8, Iss 616, p 616 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/8/8/616 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse8080616 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/eb5d88a7463e455791c8fc0b0ae1f7e5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8080616 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
616 |
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1766134515702431744 |