Modélisation de l’impact du changement climatique sur trois aires de distribution végétales dans le Mercantour

• Published in: Bulletin de l'Association de géographes français
• Main Authors: Matthieu Vignal, Julien Andrieu
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; French
• Published: Association AGF 2016
• Subjects: Biogeography; Modeling; Climate change; Distribution areas; Mountains; Geography (General); G1-922; Dryas octopetala
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.4000/bagf.1156; https://doaj.org/article/eaf206374d204cf180f8ad8872c9736c

The latest IPCC report presents numerous consequences of temperature elevations on terrestrial biodiversity. Changes in distribution areas of plant species are the result of different processes including reproduction and mortality. The aim of this study is to present the contribution of the modeling approach in the definition of future plants species distribution areas in the Mercantour-Argentera Mountains. Species studied are Dryas octopetala, Pinus cembra and Pinus uncinata. The method developed here allows, with botanical observations from the SILENE database and ecological descriptors (climate, geology, topography), to give a spatial definition of distribution areas in order to begin the study of changes and to integrate it into a dynamic model as seed producing center. Therefore, the method tries to characterize the changes in distribution areas through the simulation of the complex processes of seed production, dissemination, germination and mortality.