Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends
Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ea9dcdc9f412468aa2ebefaa6ec82b54 2023-05-15T14:41:22+02:00 Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends P. Bohlinger B.-M. Sinnhuber R. Ruhnke O. Kirner 2014-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1679-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ea9dcdc9f412468aa2ebefaa6ec82b54 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/1679/2014/acp-14-1679-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-14-1679-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ea9dcdc9f412468aa2ebefaa6ec82b54 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 14, Iss 3, Pp 1679-1688 (2014) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1679-2014 2022-12-31T00:03:22Z Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by −0.41 ± 0.11 K decade −1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Merra ENVELOPE(12.615,12.615,65.816,65.816) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14 3 1679 1688 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 P. Bohlinger B.-M. Sinnhuber R. Ruhnke O. Kirner Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion is closely linked to the occurrence of low stratospheric temperatures. There are indications that cold winters in the Arctic stratosphere have been getting colder, raising the question if and to what extent a cooling of the Arctic stratosphere may continue into the future. We use meteorological reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the past 32 yr together with calculations of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) and models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) project to infer radiative and dynamical contributions to long-term Arctic stratospheric temperature changes. For the past three decades the reanalyses show a warming trend in winter and cooling trend in spring and summer, which agree well with trends from the Radiosonde Innovation Composite Homogenization (RICH) adjusted radiosonde data set. Changes in winter and spring are caused by a corresponding change of planetary wave activity with increases in winter and decreases in spring. During winter the increase of planetary wave activity is counteracted by a residual radiatively induced cooling. Stratospheric radiatively induced cooling is detected throughout all seasons, being highly significant in spring and summer. This means that for a given dynamical situation, according to ERA-Interim the annual mean temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere has been cooling by −0.41 ± 0.11 K decade −1 at 50 hPa over the past 32 yr. Calculations with state-of-the-art models from CCMVal and the EMAC model qualitatively reproduce the radiatively induced cooling for the past decades, but underestimate the amount of radiatively induced cooling deduced from reanalyses. There are indications that this discrepancy could be partly related to a possible underestimation of past Arctic ozone trends in the models. The models project a continued cooling ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. Bohlinger B.-M. Sinnhuber R. Ruhnke O. Kirner |
author_facet |
P. Bohlinger B.-M. Sinnhuber R. Ruhnke O. Kirner |
author_sort |
P. Bohlinger |
title |
Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends |
title_short |
Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends |
title_full |
Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends |
title_fullStr |
Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends |
title_sort |
radiative and dynamical contributions to past and future arctic stratospheric temperature trends |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1679-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ea9dcdc9f412468aa2ebefaa6ec82b54 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(12.615,12.615,65.816,65.816) |
geographic |
Arctic Merra |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Merra |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 14, Iss 3, Pp 1679-1688 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/14/1679/2014/acp-14-1679-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 1680-7316 1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-14-1679-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ea9dcdc9f412468aa2ebefaa6ec82b54 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1679-2014 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1679 |
op_container_end_page |
1688 |
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1766313158015713280 |