Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China.
Background The emergence and re-emergence of scrub typhus has been reported in the past decade in many global regions. In this study, we aim to identify potential scrub typhus infection risk zones with high spatial resolution in Qingdao city, in which scrub typhus is endemic, to guide local preventi...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ea41b419034140a8a3cd2d01f7f91ac7 2023-05-15T15:14:05+02:00 Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China. Hualei Xin Peng Fu Junling Sun Shengjie Lai Wenbiao Hu Archie C A Clements Jianping Sun Jing Cui Simon I Hay Xiaojing Li Zhongjie Li 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 https://doaj.org/article/ea41b419034140a8a3cd2d01f7f91ac7 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 https://doaj.org/article/ea41b419034140a8a3cd2d01f7f91ac7 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 12, p e0008757 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 2022-12-31T11:49:06Z Background The emergence and re-emergence of scrub typhus has been reported in the past decade in many global regions. In this study, we aim to identify potential scrub typhus infection risk zones with high spatial resolution in Qingdao city, in which scrub typhus is endemic, to guide local prevention and control strategies. Methodology/principal findings Scrub typhus cases in Qingdao city during 2006-2018 were retrieved from the Chinese National Infectious Diseases Reporting System. We divided Qingdao city into 1,101 gridded squares and classified them into two categories: areas with and without recorded scrub typhus cases. A boosted regression tree model was used to explore environmental and socioeconomic covariates associated with scrub typhus occurrence and predict the risk of scrub typhus infection across the whole area of Qingdao city. A total of 989 scrub typhus cases were reported in Qingdao from 2006-2018, with most cases located in rural and suburban areas. The predicted risk map generated by the boosted regression tree models indicated that the highest infection risk areas were mainly concentrated in the mid-east and northeast regions of Qingdao, with gross domestic product (20.9%±1.8% standard error) and annual cumulative precipitation (20.3%±1.1%) contributing the most to the variation in the models. By using a threshold environmental suitability value of 0.26, we identified 757 squares (68.7% of the total) with a favourable environment for scrub typhus infection; 66.2% (501/757) of the squares had not yet recorded cases. It is estimated that 6.32 million people (72.5% of the total population) reside in areas with a high risk of scrub typhus infection. Conclusions/significance Many locations in Qingdao city with no recorded scrub typhus cases were identified as being at risk for scrub typhus occurrence. In these at-risk areas, awareness and capacity for case diagnosis and treatment should be enhanced in the local medical service institutes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 12 e0008757 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Hualei Xin Peng Fu Junling Sun Shengjie Lai Wenbiao Hu Archie C A Clements Jianping Sun Jing Cui Simon I Hay Xiaojing Li Zhongjie Li Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background The emergence and re-emergence of scrub typhus has been reported in the past decade in many global regions. In this study, we aim to identify potential scrub typhus infection risk zones with high spatial resolution in Qingdao city, in which scrub typhus is endemic, to guide local prevention and control strategies. Methodology/principal findings Scrub typhus cases in Qingdao city during 2006-2018 were retrieved from the Chinese National Infectious Diseases Reporting System. We divided Qingdao city into 1,101 gridded squares and classified them into two categories: areas with and without recorded scrub typhus cases. A boosted regression tree model was used to explore environmental and socioeconomic covariates associated with scrub typhus occurrence and predict the risk of scrub typhus infection across the whole area of Qingdao city. A total of 989 scrub typhus cases were reported in Qingdao from 2006-2018, with most cases located in rural and suburban areas. The predicted risk map generated by the boosted regression tree models indicated that the highest infection risk areas were mainly concentrated in the mid-east and northeast regions of Qingdao, with gross domestic product (20.9%±1.8% standard error) and annual cumulative precipitation (20.3%±1.1%) contributing the most to the variation in the models. By using a threshold environmental suitability value of 0.26, we identified 757 squares (68.7% of the total) with a favourable environment for scrub typhus infection; 66.2% (501/757) of the squares had not yet recorded cases. It is estimated that 6.32 million people (72.5% of the total population) reside in areas with a high risk of scrub typhus infection. Conclusions/significance Many locations in Qingdao city with no recorded scrub typhus cases were identified as being at risk for scrub typhus occurrence. In these at-risk areas, awareness and capacity for case diagnosis and treatment should be enhanced in the local medical service institutes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hualei Xin Peng Fu Junling Sun Shengjie Lai Wenbiao Hu Archie C A Clements Jianping Sun Jing Cui Simon I Hay Xiaojing Li Zhongjie Li |
author_facet |
Hualei Xin Peng Fu Junling Sun Shengjie Lai Wenbiao Hu Archie C A Clements Jianping Sun Jing Cui Simon I Hay Xiaojing Li Zhongjie Li |
author_sort |
Hualei Xin |
title |
Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China. |
title_short |
Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China. |
title_full |
Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China. |
title_fullStr |
Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China. |
title_sort |
risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in qingdao city, china. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 https://doaj.org/article/ea41b419034140a8a3cd2d01f7f91ac7 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 12, p e0008757 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 https://doaj.org/article/ea41b419034140a8a3cd2d01f7f91ac7 |
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008757 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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14 |
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12 |
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e0008757 |
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