Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change
Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST inc...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ea3fe2cd2e4742d7ad8fe5473d0b7012 2023-05-15T17:29:56+02:00 Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change Huanping Huang Christina M. Patricola Jonathan M. Winter Erich C. Osterberg Justin S. Mankin 2021-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 https://doaj.org/article/ea3fe2cd2e4742d7ad8fe5473d0b7012 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472100044X https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 https://doaj.org/article/ea3fe2cd2e4742d7ad8fe5473d0b7012 Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 33, Iss , Pp 100351- (2021) Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 2022-12-31T07:15:45Z Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST increases by using the Community Earth System Model large ensembles and an optimal fingerprint method to isolate the effects of different forcings on 1929–2018 Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs. We find that external forcings have significantly influenced both Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs, with a time of detection in 2008 and 1968, respectively. Beyond SST changes attributable to internal variability of the Atlantic, anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases are important drivers of SST changes, first detected in 1968 and 1983, respectively. Greenhouse gases are the only anthropogenic forcing exerting substantial influence on EP, first detected in 2008. We therefore attribute the 1996 EP shift to both unforced Atlantic variability and anthropogenic forcings. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Weather and Climate Extremes 33 100351 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Huanping Huang Christina M. Patricola Jonathan M. Winter Erich C. Osterberg Justin S. Mankin Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
topic_facet |
Extreme precipitation Atlantic sea surface temperatures Anthropogenic forcings Atlantic multidecadal variability Optimal fingerprinting Time of detection Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Extreme precipitation (EP) in the Northeastern United States increased abruptly after 1996, coinciding with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the importance of internal variability and external forcings (including anthropogenic and natural forcings) to these EP and SST increases by using the Community Earth System Model large ensembles and an optimal fingerprint method to isolate the effects of different forcings on 1929–2018 Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs. We find that external forcings have significantly influenced both Northeast EP and North Atlantic SSTs, with a time of detection in 2008 and 1968, respectively. Beyond SST changes attributable to internal variability of the Atlantic, anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases are important drivers of SST changes, first detected in 1968 and 1983, respectively. Greenhouse gases are the only anthropogenic forcing exerting substantial influence on EP, first detected in 2008. We therefore attribute the 1996 EP shift to both unforced Atlantic variability and anthropogenic forcings. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huanping Huang Christina M. Patricola Jonathan M. Winter Erich C. Osterberg Justin S. Mankin |
author_facet |
Huanping Huang Christina M. Patricola Jonathan M. Winter Erich C. Osterberg Justin S. Mankin |
author_sort |
Huanping Huang |
title |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_short |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_full |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_fullStr |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change |
title_sort |
rise in northeast us extreme precipitation caused by atlantic variability and climate change |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 https://doaj.org/article/ea3fe2cd2e4742d7ad8fe5473d0b7012 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol 33, Iss , Pp 100351- (2021) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472100044X https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947 2212-0947 doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 https://doaj.org/article/ea3fe2cd2e4742d7ad8fe5473d0b7012 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Extremes |
container_volume |
33 |
container_start_page |
100351 |
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1766125167323381760 |