Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic
We present a sensitivity analysis and discuss the probabilistic forecast capabilities of the novel sea ice model neXtSIM used in hindcast mode. The study pertains to the response of the model to the uncertainty on winds using probabilistic forecasts of ice trajectories. neXtSIM is a continuous Lagra...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018 https://doaj.org/article/e9bc4cd0b4bd450eadc1545b93fb76a2 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e9bc4cd0b4bd450eadc1545b93fb76a2 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e9bc4cd0b4bd450eadc1545b93fb76a2 2023-05-15T15:03:51+02:00 Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic M. Rabatel P. Rampal A. Carrassi L. Bertino C. K. R. T. Jones 2018-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018 https://doaj.org/article/e9bc4cd0b4bd450eadc1545b93fb76a2 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/935/2018/tc-12-935-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-935-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/e9bc4cd0b4bd450eadc1545b93fb76a2 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 935-953 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018 2022-12-31T12:23:46Z We present a sensitivity analysis and discuss the probabilistic forecast capabilities of the novel sea ice model neXtSIM used in hindcast mode. The study pertains to the response of the model to the uncertainty on winds using probabilistic forecasts of ice trajectories. neXtSIM is a continuous Lagrangian numerical model that uses an elasto-brittle rheology to simulate the ice response to external forces. The sensitivity analysis is based on a Monte Carlo sampling of 12 members. The response of the model to the uncertainties is evaluated in terms of simulated ice drift distances from their initial positions, and from the mean position of the ensemble, over the mid-term forecast horizon of 10 days. The simulated ice drift is decomposed into advective and diffusive parts that are characterised separately both spatially and temporally and compared to what is obtained with a free-drift model, that is, when the ice rheology does not play any role in the modelled physics of the ice. The seasonal variability of the model sensitivity is presented and shows the role of the ice compactness and rheology in the ice drift response at both local and regional scales in the Arctic. Indeed, the ice drift simulated by neXtSIM in summer is close to the one obtained with the free-drift model, while the more compact and solid ice pack shows a significantly different mechanical and drift behaviour in winter. For the winter period analysed in this study, we also show that, in contrast to the free-drift model, neXtSIM reproduces the sea ice Lagrangian diffusion regimes as found from observed trajectories. The forecast capability of neXtSIM is also evaluated using a large set of real buoy's trajectories and compared to the capability of the free-drift model. We found that neXtSIM performs significantly better in simulating sea ice drift, both in terms of forecast error and as a tool to assist search and rescue operations, although the sources of uncertainties assumed for the present experiment are not sufficient for complete coverage of ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic ice pack Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic The Cryosphere 12 3 935 953 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 M. Rabatel P. Rampal A. Carrassi L. Bertino C. K. R. T. Jones Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
We present a sensitivity analysis and discuss the probabilistic forecast capabilities of the novel sea ice model neXtSIM used in hindcast mode. The study pertains to the response of the model to the uncertainty on winds using probabilistic forecasts of ice trajectories. neXtSIM is a continuous Lagrangian numerical model that uses an elasto-brittle rheology to simulate the ice response to external forces. The sensitivity analysis is based on a Monte Carlo sampling of 12 members. The response of the model to the uncertainties is evaluated in terms of simulated ice drift distances from their initial positions, and from the mean position of the ensemble, over the mid-term forecast horizon of 10 days. The simulated ice drift is decomposed into advective and diffusive parts that are characterised separately both spatially and temporally and compared to what is obtained with a free-drift model, that is, when the ice rheology does not play any role in the modelled physics of the ice. The seasonal variability of the model sensitivity is presented and shows the role of the ice compactness and rheology in the ice drift response at both local and regional scales in the Arctic. Indeed, the ice drift simulated by neXtSIM in summer is close to the one obtained with the free-drift model, while the more compact and solid ice pack shows a significantly different mechanical and drift behaviour in winter. For the winter period analysed in this study, we also show that, in contrast to the free-drift model, neXtSIM reproduces the sea ice Lagrangian diffusion regimes as found from observed trajectories. The forecast capability of neXtSIM is also evaluated using a large set of real buoy's trajectories and compared to the capability of the free-drift model. We found that neXtSIM performs significantly better in simulating sea ice drift, both in terms of forecast error and as a tool to assist search and rescue operations, although the sources of uncertainties assumed for the present experiment are not sufficient for complete coverage of ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Rabatel P. Rampal A. Carrassi L. Bertino C. K. R. T. Jones |
author_facet |
M. Rabatel P. Rampal A. Carrassi L. Bertino C. K. R. T. Jones |
author_sort |
M. Rabatel |
title |
Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic |
title_short |
Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic |
title_full |
Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic |
title_sort |
impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the arctic |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018 https://doaj.org/article/e9bc4cd0b4bd450eadc1545b93fb76a2 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic ice pack Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic ice pack Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 935-953 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/935/2018/tc-12-935-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-935-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/e9bc4cd0b4bd450eadc1545b93fb76a2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-935-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
935 |
op_container_end_page |
953 |
_version_ |
1766335701108916224 |