Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts
The drive to develop environmental prediction systems that are seamless across both weather and climate timescales has culminated in the development and use of Earth system models, which include a coupled representation of the atmosphere, land, ocean and sea ice, for medium-range weather forecasts....
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e9803d076c9e4646a5849e8d3664716e 2023-05-15T18:16:11+02:00 Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts J. J. Day S. Keeley G. Arduini L. Magnusson K. Mogensen M. Rodwell I. Sandu S. Tietsche 2022-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022 https://doaj.org/article/e9803d076c9e4646a5849e8d3664716e EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/713/2022/wcd-3-713-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/e9803d076c9e4646a5849e8d3664716e Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 713-731 (2022) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022 2022-12-30T22:56:02Z The drive to develop environmental prediction systems that are seamless across both weather and climate timescales has culminated in the development and use of Earth system models, which include a coupled representation of the atmosphere, land, ocean and sea ice, for medium-range weather forecasts. One region where such a coupled Earth system approach has the potential to significantly influence the skill of weather forecasts is in the polar and sub-polar seas, where fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum are strongly influenced by the position of the sea ice edge. In this study we demonstrate that using a dynamically coupled ocean and sea ice model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System results in improved sea ice edge position forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere in the medium range. Further, this improves forecasts of boundary layer temperature and humidity downstream of the sea ice edge in some regions during periods of rapid change in the sea ice, compared to forecasts in which the sea surface temperature anomalies and sea ice concentration do not evolve throughout the forecasts. However, challenges remain, such as large errors in the position of the ice edge in the ocean analysis used to initialise the ocean component of the coupled system, which has an error of approximately 50 % of the total forecast error at day 9, suggesting there is much skill to be gained by improving the ocean analysis at and around the sea ice edge. The importance of the choice of sea ice analysis for verification is also highlighted, with a call for more guidance on the suitability of satellite sea ice products to verify forecasts on daily to weekly timescales and on meso-scales ( < 500 km ). Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 3 713 731 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 J. J. Day S. Keeley G. Arduini L. Magnusson K. Mogensen M. Rodwell I. Sandu S. Tietsche Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
The drive to develop environmental prediction systems that are seamless across both weather and climate timescales has culminated in the development and use of Earth system models, which include a coupled representation of the atmosphere, land, ocean and sea ice, for medium-range weather forecasts. One region where such a coupled Earth system approach has the potential to significantly influence the skill of weather forecasts is in the polar and sub-polar seas, where fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum are strongly influenced by the position of the sea ice edge. In this study we demonstrate that using a dynamically coupled ocean and sea ice model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System results in improved sea ice edge position forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere in the medium range. Further, this improves forecasts of boundary layer temperature and humidity downstream of the sea ice edge in some regions during periods of rapid change in the sea ice, compared to forecasts in which the sea surface temperature anomalies and sea ice concentration do not evolve throughout the forecasts. However, challenges remain, such as large errors in the position of the ice edge in the ocean analysis used to initialise the ocean component of the coupled system, which has an error of approximately 50 % of the total forecast error at day 9, suggesting there is much skill to be gained by improving the ocean analysis at and around the sea ice edge. The importance of the choice of sea ice analysis for verification is also highlighted, with a call for more guidance on the suitability of satellite sea ice products to verify forecasts on daily to weekly timescales and on meso-scales ( < 500 km ). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. J. Day S. Keeley G. Arduini L. Magnusson K. Mogensen M. Rodwell I. Sandu S. Tietsche |
author_facet |
J. J. Day S. Keeley G. Arduini L. Magnusson K. Mogensen M. Rodwell I. Sandu S. Tietsche |
author_sort |
J. J. Day |
title |
Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts |
title_short |
Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts |
title_full |
Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts |
title_sort |
benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022 https://doaj.org/article/e9803d076c9e4646a5849e8d3664716e |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 713-731 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/713/2022/wcd-3-713-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/e9803d076c9e4646a5849e8d3664716e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
3 |
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713 |
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731 |
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