Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling
Revealing the adaptive responses of ecological, social, and economic systems to a transforming biosphere is crucial for understanding system resilience and preventing collapse. However, testing the theory that underpins complex adaptive system organization (e.g., panarchy theory) is challenging. We...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e8635dcfb5d0407b94ccc2f30e528e4b 2023-05-15T17:35:17+02:00 Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling David G. Angeler Stina Drakare Richard K. Johnson 2011-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04175-160305 https://doaj.org/article/e8635dcfb5d0407b94ccc2f30e528e4b EN eng Resilience Alliance http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss3/art5/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-04175-160305 https://doaj.org/article/e8635dcfb5d0407b94ccc2f30e528e4b Ecology and Society, Vol 16, Iss 3, p 5 (2011) complex adaptive systems dynamics complex adaptive systems organization cross-scale structure discontinuities environmental variables invertebrates lakes panarchy phytoplankton resilience time series modeling Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04175-160305 2022-12-31T07:49:27Z Revealing the adaptive responses of ecological, social, and economic systems to a transforming biosphere is crucial for understanding system resilience and preventing collapse. However, testing the theory that underpins complex adaptive system organization (e.g., panarchy theory) is challenging. We used multivariate time series modeling to identify scale-specific system organization and, by extension, apparent resilience mechanisms. We used a 20-year time series of invertebrates and phytoplankton from 26 Swedish lakes to test the proposition that a few key-structuring environmental variables at specific scales create discontinuities in community dynamics. Cross-scale structure was manifested in two independent species groups within both communities across lakes. The first species group showed patterns of directional temporal change, which was related to environmental variables that acted at broad spatiotemporal scales (reduced sulfate deposition, North Atlantic Oscillation). The second species group showed fluctuation patterns, which often could not be explained by environmental variables. However, when significant relationships were found, species-group trends were predicted by variables (total organic carbon, nutrients) that acted at narrower spatial scales (i.e., catchment and lake). Although the sets of environmental variables that predicted the species groups differed between phytoplankton and invertebrates, the scale-specific imprints of keystone environmental variables for creating cross-scale structure were clear for both communities. Temporal trends of functional groups did not track the observed structural changes, suggesting functional stability despite structural change. Our approach allows for identifying scale-specific patterns and processes, thus providing opportunities for better characterization of complex adaptive systems organization and dynamics. This, in turn, holds potential for more accurate evaluation of resilience in disparate system types (ecological, social, economic). Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ecology and Society 16 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
complex adaptive systems dynamics complex adaptive systems organization cross-scale structure discontinuities environmental variables invertebrates lakes panarchy phytoplankton resilience time series modeling Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
complex adaptive systems dynamics complex adaptive systems organization cross-scale structure discontinuities environmental variables invertebrates lakes panarchy phytoplankton resilience time series modeling Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 David G. Angeler Stina Drakare Richard K. Johnson Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling |
topic_facet |
complex adaptive systems dynamics complex adaptive systems organization cross-scale structure discontinuities environmental variables invertebrates lakes panarchy phytoplankton resilience time series modeling Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Revealing the adaptive responses of ecological, social, and economic systems to a transforming biosphere is crucial for understanding system resilience and preventing collapse. However, testing the theory that underpins complex adaptive system organization (e.g., panarchy theory) is challenging. We used multivariate time series modeling to identify scale-specific system organization and, by extension, apparent resilience mechanisms. We used a 20-year time series of invertebrates and phytoplankton from 26 Swedish lakes to test the proposition that a few key-structuring environmental variables at specific scales create discontinuities in community dynamics. Cross-scale structure was manifested in two independent species groups within both communities across lakes. The first species group showed patterns of directional temporal change, which was related to environmental variables that acted at broad spatiotemporal scales (reduced sulfate deposition, North Atlantic Oscillation). The second species group showed fluctuation patterns, which often could not be explained by environmental variables. However, when significant relationships were found, species-group trends were predicted by variables (total organic carbon, nutrients) that acted at narrower spatial scales (i.e., catchment and lake). Although the sets of environmental variables that predicted the species groups differed between phytoplankton and invertebrates, the scale-specific imprints of keystone environmental variables for creating cross-scale structure were clear for both communities. Temporal trends of functional groups did not track the observed structural changes, suggesting functional stability despite structural change. Our approach allows for identifying scale-specific patterns and processes, thus providing opportunities for better characterization of complex adaptive systems organization and dynamics. This, in turn, holds potential for more accurate evaluation of resilience in disparate system types (ecological, social, economic). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
David G. Angeler Stina Drakare Richard K. Johnson |
author_facet |
David G. Angeler Stina Drakare Richard K. Johnson |
author_sort |
David G. Angeler |
title |
Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling |
title_short |
Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling |
title_full |
Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling |
title_fullStr |
Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Revealing the Organization of Complex Adaptive Systems through Multivariate Time Series Modeling |
title_sort |
revealing the organization of complex adaptive systems through multivariate time series modeling |
publisher |
Resilience Alliance |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04175-160305 https://doaj.org/article/e8635dcfb5d0407b94ccc2f30e528e4b |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Ecology and Society, Vol 16, Iss 3, p 5 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss3/art5/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-04175-160305 https://doaj.org/article/e8635dcfb5d0407b94ccc2f30e528e4b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04175-160305 |
container_title |
Ecology and Society |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1766134404290183168 |