Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka
Abstract Background El Niño events were suggested as a potential predictor for malaria epidemics in Sri Lanka based on the coincidence of nine out of 16 epidemics with El Niño events from 1870 to 1945. Here the potential for the use of El Niño predictions to anticipate epidemics was examined using e...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e836acdce7844db5952e73fb4ab7aaed 2023-05-15T15:18:18+02:00 Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka Amerasinghe Priyanie Yahiya Zeenas Chandimala Janaki Yang Hyemin Galappaththy Gawrie N Zubair Lareef Ward Neil Connor Stephen J 2008-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-140 https://doaj.org/article/e836acdce7844db5952e73fb4ab7aaed EN eng BMC http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/140 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-140 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/e836acdce7844db5952e73fb4ab7aaed Malaria Journal, Vol 7, Iss 1, p 140 (2008) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2008 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-140 2022-12-31T07:17:30Z Abstract Background El Niño events were suggested as a potential predictor for malaria epidemics in Sri Lanka based on the coincidence of nine out of 16 epidemics with El Niño events from 1870 to 1945. Here the potential for the use of El Niño predictions to anticipate epidemics was examined using enhanced climatic and epidemiological data from 1870 to 2000. Methods The epidemics start years were identified by the National Malaria Control Programme and verified against epidemiological records for consistency. Monthly average rainfall climatologies were estimated for epidemic and non-epidemic years; as well El Niño, Neutral and La Niña climatic phases. The relationship between El Niño indices and epidemics was examined to identify 'epochs' of consistent association. The statistical significance of the association between El Niño and epidemics for different epochs was characterized. The changes in the rainfall-El Niño relationships over the decade were examined using running windowed correlations. The anomalies in rainfall climatology during El Niño events for different epochs were compared. Results The relationship between El Niño and epidemics from 1870 to 1927 was confirmed. The anomalies in monthly average rainfall during El Niño events resembled the anomalies in monthly average rainfall during epidemics during this period. However, the relationship between El Niño and epidemics broke down from 1928 to 1980. Of the three epidemics in these six decades, only one coincided with an El Niño. Not only did this relationship breakdown but epidemics were more likely to occur in periods with a La Niña tendency. After 1980, three of four epidemics coincided with El Niño. Conclusion The breakdown of the association between El Niño and epidemics after 1928 is likely due to an epochal change in the El Niño-rainfall relationship in Sri Lanka around the 1930's. It is unlikely that this breakdown is due to the insecticide spraying programme that began in 1945 since the breakdown started in 1928. Nor does it explain the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 7 1 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Amerasinghe Priyanie Yahiya Zeenas Chandimala Janaki Yang Hyemin Galappaththy Gawrie N Zubair Lareef Ward Neil Connor Stephen J Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background El Niño events were suggested as a potential predictor for malaria epidemics in Sri Lanka based on the coincidence of nine out of 16 epidemics with El Niño events from 1870 to 1945. Here the potential for the use of El Niño predictions to anticipate epidemics was examined using enhanced climatic and epidemiological data from 1870 to 2000. Methods The epidemics start years were identified by the National Malaria Control Programme and verified against epidemiological records for consistency. Monthly average rainfall climatologies were estimated for epidemic and non-epidemic years; as well El Niño, Neutral and La Niña climatic phases. The relationship between El Niño indices and epidemics was examined to identify 'epochs' of consistent association. The statistical significance of the association between El Niño and epidemics for different epochs was characterized. The changes in the rainfall-El Niño relationships over the decade were examined using running windowed correlations. The anomalies in rainfall climatology during El Niño events for different epochs were compared. Results The relationship between El Niño and epidemics from 1870 to 1927 was confirmed. The anomalies in monthly average rainfall during El Niño events resembled the anomalies in monthly average rainfall during epidemics during this period. However, the relationship between El Niño and epidemics broke down from 1928 to 1980. Of the three epidemics in these six decades, only one coincided with an El Niño. Not only did this relationship breakdown but epidemics were more likely to occur in periods with a La Niña tendency. After 1980, three of four epidemics coincided with El Niño. Conclusion The breakdown of the association between El Niño and epidemics after 1928 is likely due to an epochal change in the El Niño-rainfall relationship in Sri Lanka around the 1930's. It is unlikely that this breakdown is due to the insecticide spraying programme that began in 1945 since the breakdown started in 1928. Nor does it explain the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Amerasinghe Priyanie Yahiya Zeenas Chandimala Janaki Yang Hyemin Galappaththy Gawrie N Zubair Lareef Ward Neil Connor Stephen J |
author_facet |
Amerasinghe Priyanie Yahiya Zeenas Chandimala Janaki Yang Hyemin Galappaththy Gawrie N Zubair Lareef Ward Neil Connor Stephen J |
author_sort |
Amerasinghe Priyanie |
title |
Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka |
title_short |
Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka |
title_full |
Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka |
title_fullStr |
Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka |
title_full_unstemmed |
Epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and El Niño in Sri Lanka |
title_sort |
epochal changes in the association between malaria epidemics and el niño in sri lanka |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-140 https://doaj.org/article/e836acdce7844db5952e73fb4ab7aaed |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 7, Iss 1, p 140 (2008) |
op_relation |
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/140 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-140 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/e836acdce7844db5952e73fb4ab7aaed |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-140 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
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7 |
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1 |
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1766348496056614912 |