Subseasonal Prediction of Regional Antarctic Sea Ice by a Deep Learning Model

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Yunhe Wang, Xiaojun Yuan, Yibin Ren, Mitchell Bushuk, Qi Shu, Cuihua Li, Xiaofeng Li
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2023
• Subjects: Antarctic; sea ice prediction; Geophysics. Cosmic physics; QC801-809; Antarc*; Sea ice; Weddell Sea
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104347; https://doaj.org/article/e7f78b85b7834e6e825fde8d702ef1f4

Abstract Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction at seasonal scale has been documented, but a gap remains at subseasonal scale (1–8 weeks) due to limited understanding of ice‐related physical mechanisms. To overcome this limitation, we developed a deep learning model named Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPNet) that can predict SIC without the need to account for complex physical processes. Compared to mainstream dynamical models like European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, as well as a relatively advanced statistical model like the linear Markov model, SIPNet outperforms them all, effectively filling the gap in subseasonal Antarctic SIC prediction capability. SIPNet results indicate that autumn SIC variability contributes the most to sea ice predictability, whereas spring contributes the least. In addition, the Weddell Sea displays the highest sea ice predictability, while predictability is low in the West Pacific. SIPNet can also capture the signal of ENSO and SAM on sea ice.