More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic

Abstract The changes in the Arctic precipitation profoundly impact the surface mass balance of ice sheet and sea ice, the extent of snow cover, as well as the land/ice surface runoff in the Arctic, particularly when it occurs in liquid form. Here, we use state‐of‐the‐art models from the Coupled Mode...

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Published in:Earth's Future
Main Authors: T. F. Dou, S. F. Pan, R. Bintanja, C. D. Xiao
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002378
https://doaj.org/article/e7b6788d57cd4848aab625927f1a32d0
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e7b6788d57cd4848aab625927f1a32d0 2023-05-15T14:34:05+02:00 More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic T. F. Dou S. F. Pan R. Bintanja C. D. Xiao 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002378 https://doaj.org/article/e7b6788d57cd4848aab625927f1a32d0 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002378 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2021EF002378 https://doaj.org/article/e7b6788d57cd4848aab625927f1a32d0 Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) Arctic rainfall intensity rainfall frequency rainfall extent local warming Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002378 2022-12-30T21:38:55Z Abstract The changes in the Arctic precipitation profoundly impact the surface mass balance of ice sheet and sea ice, the extent of snow cover, as well as the land/ice surface runoff in the Arctic, particularly when it occurs in liquid form. Here, we use state‐of‐the‐art models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to project the number of days with rainfall, the intensities and onset dates of rainfall events in the Arctic under the strong emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi‐model mean shows that rainfall will occur more frequently in the Arctic at the end of this century (2091–2100), with larger increase in the rainy days over the Pacific and Atlantic sectors (up to 12 days/month) during the cold seasons (October–May) and over the Arctic Ocean (up to 14 days/month) during the warm seasons (June–September) as compared with the present day (2006–2015). Greater uncertainty is found in the cold seasons, which mainly comes from the high variability among different models in the Norwegian Sea. Sixty‐seven to ninety‐three percentage of the increases in rainy days is contributed by the local warming and the remainder by the increase in total precipitation. Moreover, at the end of this century, the rainfall in spring will occur much earlier than the present day by more than 1 month, and the extent of rainfall will further expand toward the center of the Arctic Ocean and the inland Greenland in the future. The changes of rainfall intensity on the Arctic land area to the climate warming are more sensitive than that on the Arctic Ocean in warm seasons (May–September). The rainfall will be further strengthened in most of the Arctic continents in summer, with the largest increase in the intensity of ∼2 mm/day along the southwest coast of Greenland. The above results are confirmed by the latest projections from CMIP6 models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Ice Sheet Norwegian Sea Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Norwegian Sea Greenland Pacific Earth's Future 10 10
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Arctic
rainfall intensity
rainfall frequency
rainfall extent
local warming
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Ecology
QH540-549.5
spellingShingle Arctic
rainfall intensity
rainfall frequency
rainfall extent
local warming
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Ecology
QH540-549.5
T. F. Dou
S. F. Pan
R. Bintanja
C. D. Xiao
More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic
topic_facet Arctic
rainfall intensity
rainfall frequency
rainfall extent
local warming
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Ecology
QH540-549.5
description Abstract The changes in the Arctic precipitation profoundly impact the surface mass balance of ice sheet and sea ice, the extent of snow cover, as well as the land/ice surface runoff in the Arctic, particularly when it occurs in liquid form. Here, we use state‐of‐the‐art models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to project the number of days with rainfall, the intensities and onset dates of rainfall events in the Arctic under the strong emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi‐model mean shows that rainfall will occur more frequently in the Arctic at the end of this century (2091–2100), with larger increase in the rainy days over the Pacific and Atlantic sectors (up to 12 days/month) during the cold seasons (October–May) and over the Arctic Ocean (up to 14 days/month) during the warm seasons (June–September) as compared with the present day (2006–2015). Greater uncertainty is found in the cold seasons, which mainly comes from the high variability among different models in the Norwegian Sea. Sixty‐seven to ninety‐three percentage of the increases in rainy days is contributed by the local warming and the remainder by the increase in total precipitation. Moreover, at the end of this century, the rainfall in spring will occur much earlier than the present day by more than 1 month, and the extent of rainfall will further expand toward the center of the Arctic Ocean and the inland Greenland in the future. The changes of rainfall intensity on the Arctic land area to the climate warming are more sensitive than that on the Arctic Ocean in warm seasons (May–September). The rainfall will be further strengthened in most of the Arctic continents in summer, with the largest increase in the intensity of ∼2 mm/day along the southwest coast of Greenland. The above results are confirmed by the latest projections from CMIP6 models.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author T. F. Dou
S. F. Pan
R. Bintanja
C. D. Xiao
author_facet T. F. Dou
S. F. Pan
R. Bintanja
C. D. Xiao
author_sort T. F. Dou
title More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic
title_short More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic
title_full More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic
title_fullStr More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic
title_full_unstemmed More Frequent, Intense, and Extensive Rainfall Events in a Strongly Warming Arctic
title_sort more frequent, intense, and extensive rainfall events in a strongly warming arctic
publisher Wiley
publishDate 2022
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002378
https://doaj.org/article/e7b6788d57cd4848aab625927f1a32d0
geographic Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Norwegian Sea
Greenland
Pacific
geographic_facet Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Norwegian Sea
Greenland
Pacific
genre Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Greenland
Ice Sheet
Norwegian Sea
Sea ice
genre_facet Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Greenland
Ice Sheet
Norwegian Sea
Sea ice
op_source Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2022)
op_relation https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002378
https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277
2328-4277
doi:10.1029/2021EF002378
https://doaj.org/article/e7b6788d57cd4848aab625927f1a32d0
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002378
container_title Earth's Future
container_volume 10
container_issue 10
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