Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods
Three different climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods are employed to reconstruct spatially resolved North Atlantic–European (NAE) and Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures over the past millennium from proxy records. These are tested in the framework of pseudoproxy experiments derived f...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e7aa86c2186c477e8c57748d69ec0877 2023-05-15T17:35:53+02:00 Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods Z. Zhang S. Wagner M. Klockmann E. Zorita 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022 https://doaj.org/article/e7aa86c2186c477e8c57748d69ec0877 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/2643/2022/cp-18-2643-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/e7aa86c2186c477e8c57748d69ec0877 Climate of the Past, Vol 18, Pp 2643-2668 (2022) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022 2022-12-30T19:33:43Z Three different climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods are employed to reconstruct spatially resolved North Atlantic–European (NAE) and Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures over the past millennium from proxy records. These are tested in the framework of pseudoproxy experiments derived from two climate simulations with comprehensive Earth system models. Two of these methods are traditional multivariate linear methods (principal component regression, PCR, and canonical correlation analysis, CCA), whereas the third method (bidirectional long short-term memory neural network, Bi-LSTM) belongs to the category of machine-learning methods. In contrast to PCR and CCA, Bi-LSTM does not need to assume a linear and temporally stable relationship between the underlying proxy network and the target climate field. In addition, Bi-LSTM naturally incorporates information about the serial correlation of the time series. Our working hypothesis is that the Bi-LSTM method will achieve a better reconstruction of the amplitude of past temperature variability. In all tests, the calibration period was set to the observational period, while the validation period was set to the pre-industrial centuries. All three methods tested herein achieve reasonable reconstruction performance on both spatial and temporal scales, with the exception of an overestimation of the interannual variance by PCR, which may be due to overfitting resulting from the rather short length of the calibration period and the large number of predictors. Generally, the reconstruction skill is higher in regions with denser proxy coverage, but it is also reasonably high in proxy-free areas due to climate teleconnections. All three CFR methodologies generally tend to more strongly underestimate the variability of spatially averaged temperature indices as more noise is introduced into the pseudoproxies. The Bi-LSTM method tested in our experiments using a limited calibration dataset shows relatively worse reconstruction skills compared to PCR and CCA, and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Climate of the Past 18 12 2643 2668 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
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Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Z. Zhang S. Wagner M. Klockmann E. Zorita Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Three different climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods are employed to reconstruct spatially resolved North Atlantic–European (NAE) and Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures over the past millennium from proxy records. These are tested in the framework of pseudoproxy experiments derived from two climate simulations with comprehensive Earth system models. Two of these methods are traditional multivariate linear methods (principal component regression, PCR, and canonical correlation analysis, CCA), whereas the third method (bidirectional long short-term memory neural network, Bi-LSTM) belongs to the category of machine-learning methods. In contrast to PCR and CCA, Bi-LSTM does not need to assume a linear and temporally stable relationship between the underlying proxy network and the target climate field. In addition, Bi-LSTM naturally incorporates information about the serial correlation of the time series. Our working hypothesis is that the Bi-LSTM method will achieve a better reconstruction of the amplitude of past temperature variability. In all tests, the calibration period was set to the observational period, while the validation period was set to the pre-industrial centuries. All three methods tested herein achieve reasonable reconstruction performance on both spatial and temporal scales, with the exception of an overestimation of the interannual variance by PCR, which may be due to overfitting resulting from the rather short length of the calibration period and the large number of predictors. Generally, the reconstruction skill is higher in regions with denser proxy coverage, but it is also reasonably high in proxy-free areas due to climate teleconnections. All three CFR methodologies generally tend to more strongly underestimate the variability of spatially averaged temperature indices as more noise is introduced into the pseudoproxies. The Bi-LSTM method tested in our experiments using a limited calibration dataset shows relatively worse reconstruction skills compared to PCR and CCA, and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Z. Zhang S. Wagner M. Klockmann E. Zorita |
author_facet |
Z. Zhang S. Wagner M. Klockmann E. Zorita |
author_sort |
Z. Zhang |
title |
Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods |
title_short |
Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods |
title_full |
Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods |
title_sort |
evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022 https://doaj.org/article/e7aa86c2186c477e8c57748d69ec0877 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 18, Pp 2643-2668 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/2643/2022/cp-18-2643-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/e7aa86c2186c477e8c57748d69ec0877 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
2643 |
op_container_end_page |
2668 |
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1766135170261319680 |