Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice is widely believed to be a consequence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). While carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) is the dominant GHG contributor, recent work has highlighted a substantial role for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in Arctic...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 https://doaj.org/article/e76ca62a0231434b87cc1032e525527e |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e76ca62a0231434b87cc1032e525527e 2023-10-09T21:48:01+02:00 Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss Mitchell Bushuk Lorenzo M Polvani Mark R England 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 https://doaj.org/article/e76ca62a0231434b87cc1032e525527e EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/e76ca62a0231434b87cc1032e525527e Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 2, Iss 4, p 041001 (2023) Arctic sea ice polar climate change ozone-depleting substances climate change ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 2023-09-10T00:38:41Z The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice is widely believed to be a consequence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). While carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) is the dominant GHG contributor, recent work has highlighted a substantial role for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in Arctic sea ice loss. However, a careful analysis of the mechanisms and relative impacts of CO _2 versus ODS on Arctic sea ice loss has yet to be performed. This study performs this comparison over the period 1955–2005 when concentrations of ODS increased rapidly, by analyzing a suite of all-but-one-forcing ensembles of climate model integrations, designed to isolate the forced response to individual forcing agents in the context of internal climate variability. We show that ODS have played a significant role in year-round Arctic sea ice extent and volume trends over that period, accounting for 64% and 32% of extent and volume trends, respectively. These impacts represent 50% and 38% of the impact from CO _2 forcing, respectively. We find that ODS act via similar physical processes to CO _2 , causing sea ice loss via increased summer melt, and not sea ice dynamics changes. These findings imply that the future trajectory of ODS emissions will play an important role in future Arctic sea ice evolution. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research: Climate 2 4 041001 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice polar climate change ozone-depleting substances climate change ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice polar climate change ozone-depleting substances climate change ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Mitchell Bushuk Lorenzo M Polvani Mark R England Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice polar climate change ozone-depleting substances climate change ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice is widely believed to be a consequence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). While carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) is the dominant GHG contributor, recent work has highlighted a substantial role for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in Arctic sea ice loss. However, a careful analysis of the mechanisms and relative impacts of CO _2 versus ODS on Arctic sea ice loss has yet to be performed. This study performs this comparison over the period 1955–2005 when concentrations of ODS increased rapidly, by analyzing a suite of all-but-one-forcing ensembles of climate model integrations, designed to isolate the forced response to individual forcing agents in the context of internal climate variability. We show that ODS have played a significant role in year-round Arctic sea ice extent and volume trends over that period, accounting for 64% and 32% of extent and volume trends, respectively. These impacts represent 50% and 38% of the impact from CO _2 forcing, respectively. We find that ODS act via similar physical processes to CO _2 , causing sea ice loss via increased summer melt, and not sea ice dynamics changes. These findings imply that the future trajectory of ODS emissions will play an important role in future Arctic sea ice evolution. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mitchell Bushuk Lorenzo M Polvani Mark R England |
author_facet |
Mitchell Bushuk Lorenzo M Polvani Mark R England |
author_sort |
Mitchell Bushuk |
title |
Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss |
title_short |
Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full |
Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on Arctic sea ice loss |
title_sort |
comparing the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and carbon dioxide on arctic sea ice loss |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 https://doaj.org/article/e76ca62a0231434b87cc1032e525527e |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 2, Iss 4, p 041001 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/e76ca62a0231434b87cc1032e525527e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aced61 |
container_title |
Environmental Research: Climate |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
041001 |
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1779311043873341440 |