Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji.
Background Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease prevalent throughout the world, but with particularly high burden in Oceania (including the Pacific Island Countries and Territories). Leptospirosis is endemic in Fiji, with outbreaks often occurring following heavy rainfall and flooding. As a result of...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e7379a7198eb4e0b9e9ca2d888b2ebd2 2023-05-15T15:15:56+02:00 Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji. Eleanor M Rees Colleen L Lau Mike Kama Simon Reid Rachel Lowe Adam J Kucharski 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 https://doaj.org/article/e7379a7198eb4e0b9e9ca2d888b2ebd2 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 https://doaj.org/article/e7379a7198eb4e0b9e9ca2d888b2ebd2 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0010506 (2022) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 2022-12-31T00:24:31Z Background Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease prevalent throughout the world, but with particularly high burden in Oceania (including the Pacific Island Countries and Territories). Leptospirosis is endemic in Fiji, with outbreaks often occurring following heavy rainfall and flooding. As a result of non-specific clinical manifestation and diagnostic challenges, cases are often misdiagnosed or under-ascertained. Furthermore, little is known about the duration of persistence of antibodies to leptospirosis, which has important clinical and epidemiological implications. Methodology and principal findings Using the results from a serosurvey conducted in Fiji in 2013, we fitted serocatalytic models to estimate the duration of antibody positivity and the force of infection (FOI, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection or seroconversion), whilst accounting for seroreversion. Additionally, we estimated the most likely timing of infection. Using the reverse catalytic model, we estimated the duration of antibody persistence to be 8.33 years (4.76-12.50; assuming constant FOI) and 7.25 years (3.36-11.36; assuming time-varying FOI), which is longer than previous estimates. Using population age-structured seroprevalence data alone, we were not able to distinguish between these two models. However, by bringing in additional longitudinal data on antibody kinetics we were able to estimate the most likely time of infection, lending support to the time-varying FOI model. We found that most individuals who were antibody-positive in the 2013 serosurvey were likely to have been infected within the previous two years, and this finding is consistent with surveillance data showing high numbers of cases reported in 2012 and 2013. Conclusions This is the first study to use serocatalytic models to estimate the FOI and seroreversion rate for Leptospira infection. As well as providing an estimate for the duration of antibody positivity, we also present a novel method to estimate the most likely time of infection from ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 16 6 e0010506 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Eleanor M Rees Colleen L Lau Mike Kama Simon Reid Rachel Lowe Adam J Kucharski Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease prevalent throughout the world, but with particularly high burden in Oceania (including the Pacific Island Countries and Territories). Leptospirosis is endemic in Fiji, with outbreaks often occurring following heavy rainfall and flooding. As a result of non-specific clinical manifestation and diagnostic challenges, cases are often misdiagnosed or under-ascertained. Furthermore, little is known about the duration of persistence of antibodies to leptospirosis, which has important clinical and epidemiological implications. Methodology and principal findings Using the results from a serosurvey conducted in Fiji in 2013, we fitted serocatalytic models to estimate the duration of antibody positivity and the force of infection (FOI, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection or seroconversion), whilst accounting for seroreversion. Additionally, we estimated the most likely timing of infection. Using the reverse catalytic model, we estimated the duration of antibody persistence to be 8.33 years (4.76-12.50; assuming constant FOI) and 7.25 years (3.36-11.36; assuming time-varying FOI), which is longer than previous estimates. Using population age-structured seroprevalence data alone, we were not able to distinguish between these two models. However, by bringing in additional longitudinal data on antibody kinetics we were able to estimate the most likely time of infection, lending support to the time-varying FOI model. We found that most individuals who were antibody-positive in the 2013 serosurvey were likely to have been infected within the previous two years, and this finding is consistent with surveillance data showing high numbers of cases reported in 2012 and 2013. Conclusions This is the first study to use serocatalytic models to estimate the FOI and seroreversion rate for Leptospira infection. As well as providing an estimate for the duration of antibody positivity, we also present a novel method to estimate the most likely time of infection from ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eleanor M Rees Colleen L Lau Mike Kama Simon Reid Rachel Lowe Adam J Kucharski |
author_facet |
Eleanor M Rees Colleen L Lau Mike Kama Simon Reid Rachel Lowe Adam J Kucharski |
author_sort |
Eleanor M Rees |
title |
Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji. |
title_short |
Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji. |
title_full |
Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji. |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of Leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in Fiji. |
title_sort |
estimating the duration of antibody positivity and likely time of leptospira infection using data from a cross-sectional serological study in fiji. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 https://doaj.org/article/e7379a7198eb4e0b9e9ca2d888b2ebd2 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0010506 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 https://doaj.org/article/e7379a7198eb4e0b9e9ca2d888b2ebd2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010506 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0010506 |
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1766346256102195200 |