The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil.
Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these ba...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 https://doaj.org/article/e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 2023-05-15T15:16:25+02:00 The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. Sophie A Lee Theodoros Economou Rafael de Castro Catão Christovam Barcellos Rachel Lowe 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 https://doaj.org/article/e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 https://doaj.org/article/e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 12, p e0009773 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 2022-12-31T13:45:45Z Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil's municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 12 e0009773 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Sophie A Lee Theodoros Economou Rafael de Castro Catão Christovam Barcellos Rachel Lowe The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil's municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sophie A Lee Theodoros Economou Rafael de Castro Catão Christovam Barcellos Rachel Lowe |
author_facet |
Sophie A Lee Theodoros Economou Rafael de Castro Catão Christovam Barcellos Rachel Lowe |
author_sort |
Sophie A Lee |
title |
The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
title_short |
The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
title_full |
The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
title_fullStr |
The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil. |
title_sort |
impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century brazil. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 https://doaj.org/article/e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 12, p e0009773 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 https://doaj.org/article/e6b8ec23a38d4d1bb0f514e3f38ebf24 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009773 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
e0009773 |
_version_ |
1766346718502191104 |