Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a lea...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb 2023-05-15T14:00:20+02:00 Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers B. Marzeion A. H. Jarosch M. Hofer 2012-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 1295-1322 (2012) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 2022-12-30T21:31:49Z We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85). Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica glacier Greenland The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland The Cryosphere 6 6 1295 1322 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 B. Marzeion A. H. Jarosch M. Hofer Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
B. Marzeion A. H. Jarosch M. Hofer |
author_facet |
B. Marzeion A. H. Jarosch M. Hofer |
author_sort |
B. Marzeion |
title |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_short |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_full |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_fullStr |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
title_sort |
past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica glacier Greenland The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica glacier Greenland The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 1295-1322 (2012) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1295 |
op_container_end_page |
1322 |
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