Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers

We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a lea...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, M. Hofer
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012
https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb 2023-05-15T14:00:20+02:00 Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers B. Marzeion A. H. Jarosch M. Hofer 2012-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 1295-1322 (2012) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012 2022-12-30T21:31:49Z We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85). Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica glacier Greenland The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland The Cryosphere 6 6 1295 1322
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
spellingShingle Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
B. Marzeion
A. H. Jarosch
M. Hofer
Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
topic_facet Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
description We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85).
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author B. Marzeion
A. H. Jarosch
M. Hofer
author_facet B. Marzeion
A. H. Jarosch
M. Hofer
author_sort B. Marzeion
title Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
title_short Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
title_full Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
title_fullStr Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
title_full_unstemmed Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
title_sort past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2012
url https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012
https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb
geographic Greenland
geographic_facet Greenland
genre Antarc*
Antarctica
glacier
Greenland
The Cryosphere
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctica
glacier
Greenland
The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 6, Pp 1295-1322 (2012)
op_relation http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1295/2012/tc-6-1295-2012.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424
doi:10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012
1994-0416
1994-0424
https://doaj.org/article/e63306f9bb8e4da287987145d08e9cbb
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 6
container_issue 6
container_start_page 1295
op_container_end_page 1322
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