Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting...
Published in: | Atmosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111494 https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 2023-05-15T13:35:00+02:00 Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre 2021-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111494 https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1494 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos12111494 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 Atmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1494, p 1494 (2021) climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111494 2022-12-31T04:59:33Z One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Atmosphere 12 11 1494 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
topic_facet |
climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre |
author_facet |
Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre |
author_sort |
Fernanda Casagrande |
title |
Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
polar amplification and ice free conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °c of global warming as simulated by cmip5 and cmip6 models |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111494 https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1494, p 1494 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1494 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos12111494 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111494 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1494 |
_version_ |
1766060083254394880 |