Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis
Based on newly-available meteorological reanalysis, we compile and present extended seasonal series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking indices spanning 1800–2020, which we analyse for evidence of significant trends. This represents a major backward extension of the previo...
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2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 https://doaj.org/article/e4f9f2cec79b40c2b4291a7f45e807a8 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e4f9f2cec79b40c2b4291a7f45e807a8 2023-05-15T16:25:53+02:00 Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis Edward Hanna Thomas E. Cropper Richard J. Hall Richard C. Cornes Mariano Barriendos 2022-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 https://doaj.org/article/e4f9f2cec79b40c2b4291a7f45e807a8 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/3/436 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13030436 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/e4f9f2cec79b40c2b4291a7f45e807a8 Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 436, p 436 (2022) climate change Dalton Minimum Greenland Blocking North Atlantic Oscillation reanalysis Tambora Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 2022-12-31T04:09:05Z Based on newly-available meteorological reanalysis, we compile and present extended seasonal series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking indices spanning 1800–2020, which we analyse for evidence of significant trends. This represents a major backward extension of the previously available instrumental-/reanalysis-based Azores–Iceland and principal component-based NAO indices, and allows us to evaluate the potential effect of natural climate perturbations, especially the 1809 and 1815 major volcanic eruptions and ~1790s–1830 Dalton solar minimum, on North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. We find that winters 1809/10 and 1816/17 mark positive NAO peaks, relative to several years before and afterwards, which is in accordance with the theory of volcanic forcing of climate. However, there is little evidence of a summer NAO volcanic signature. Overall, based on the significantly longer new reanalysis time series, the new series presented here corroborate and extend our previous results of: (1) a significantly more variable year-to-year NAO with a recent exceptional clustering of extreme events since 2000 for winter; (2) a significant increasing trend in blocking over Greenland in summer. These trends have major repercussions for the probability of the occurrence of extreme weather events over northwest Europe and for the sensitivity and response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to global warming, especially if they continue as an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Atmosphere 13 3 436 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change Dalton Minimum Greenland Blocking North Atlantic Oscillation reanalysis Tambora Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change Dalton Minimum Greenland Blocking North Atlantic Oscillation reanalysis Tambora Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Edward Hanna Thomas E. Cropper Richard J. Hall Richard C. Cornes Mariano Barriendos Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis |
topic_facet |
climate change Dalton Minimum Greenland Blocking North Atlantic Oscillation reanalysis Tambora Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Based on newly-available meteorological reanalysis, we compile and present extended seasonal series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking indices spanning 1800–2020, which we analyse for evidence of significant trends. This represents a major backward extension of the previously available instrumental-/reanalysis-based Azores–Iceland and principal component-based NAO indices, and allows us to evaluate the potential effect of natural climate perturbations, especially the 1809 and 1815 major volcanic eruptions and ~1790s–1830 Dalton solar minimum, on North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. We find that winters 1809/10 and 1816/17 mark positive NAO peaks, relative to several years before and afterwards, which is in accordance with the theory of volcanic forcing of climate. However, there is little evidence of a summer NAO volcanic signature. Overall, based on the significantly longer new reanalysis time series, the new series presented here corroborate and extend our previous results of: (1) a significantly more variable year-to-year NAO with a recent exceptional clustering of extreme events since 2000 for winter; (2) a significant increasing trend in blocking over Greenland in summer. These trends have major repercussions for the probability of the occurrence of extreme weather events over northwest Europe and for the sensitivity and response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to global warming, especially if they continue as an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edward Hanna Thomas E. Cropper Richard J. Hall Richard C. Cornes Mariano Barriendos |
author_facet |
Edward Hanna Thomas E. Cropper Richard J. Hall Richard C. Cornes Mariano Barriendos |
author_sort |
Edward Hanna |
title |
Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis |
title_short |
Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis |
title_full |
Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis |
title_fullStr |
Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extended North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland Blocking Indices 1800–2020 from New Meteorological Reanalysis |
title_sort |
extended north atlantic oscillation and greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 https://doaj.org/article/e4f9f2cec79b40c2b4291a7f45e807a8 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 436, p 436 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/3/436 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13030436 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/e4f9f2cec79b40c2b4291a7f45e807a8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
436 |
_version_ |
1766014737914527744 |