Past permafrost dynamics can inform future permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

• Published in: Communications Earth & Environment
• Main Authors: Miriam C. Jones, Guido Grosse, Claire Treat, Merritt Turetsky, Katey Walter Anthony, Laura Brosius
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2023
• Subjects: Geology; QE1-996.5; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Arctic; permafrost
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00886-3; https://doaj.org/article/e41d432098264ac0b52ed1a416d48438

Abstract Climate warming threatens to destabilize vast northern permafrost areas, potentially releasing large quantities of organic carbon that could further disrupt the climate. Here we synthesize paleorecords of past permafrost-carbon dynamics to contextualize future permafrost stability and carbon feedbacks. We identify key landscape differences between the last deglaciation and today that influence the response of permafrost to atmospheric warming, as well as landscape-level differences that limit subsequent carbon uptake. We show that the current magnitude of thaw has not yet exceeded that of previous deglaciations, but that permafrost carbon release has the potential to exert a strong feedback on future Arctic climate as temperatures exceed those of the Pleistocene. Better constraints on the extent of subsea permafrost and its carbon pool, and on carbon dynamics from a range of permafrost thaw processes, including blowout craters and megaslumps, are needed to help quantify the future permafrost-carbon-climate feedbacks.