Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China
Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled f...
Published in: | Malaria Journal |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
BMC
2009
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 https://doaj.org/article/e381637912f343359a66d834e3545f18 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e381637912f343359a66d834e3545f18 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e381637912f343359a66d834e3545f18 2023-05-15T15:10:52+02:00 Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China Cheng Zhang Barnett Adrian G Clements Archie CA Snow Robert W Zhou Hom 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 https://doaj.org/article/e381637912f343359a66d834e3545f18 EN eng BMC http://www.malariajournal.com/content/8/1/180 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/e381637912f343359a66d834e3545f18 Malaria Journal, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 180 (2009) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2009 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 2022-12-31T01:41:26Z Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 8 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Cheng Zhang Barnett Adrian G Clements Archie CA Snow Robert W Zhou Hom Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cheng Zhang Barnett Adrian G Clements Archie CA Snow Robert W Zhou Hom |
author_facet |
Cheng Zhang Barnett Adrian G Clements Archie CA Snow Robert W Zhou Hom |
author_sort |
Cheng Zhang |
title |
Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China |
title_short |
Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China |
title_full |
Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China |
title_fullStr |
Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China |
title_sort |
space-time variation of malaria incidence in yunnan province, china |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 https://doaj.org/article/e381637912f343359a66d834e3545f18 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 8, Iss 1, p 180 (2009) |
op_relation |
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/8/1/180 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/e381637912f343359a66d834e3545f18 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-180 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766341804369641472 |