Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment
The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e377afa0d715452ba86d39ee9e28b6d9 2023-05-15T18:18:47+02:00 Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts 2018-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 https://doaj.org/article/e377afa0d715452ba86d39ee9e28b6d9 EN eng MDPI AG http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1331 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w10101331 https://doaj.org/article/e377afa0d715452ba86d39ee9e28b6d9 Water, Vol 10, Iss 10, p 1331 (2018) climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 2022-12-31T12:21:55Z The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Water 10 10 1331 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
spellingShingle |
climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
topic_facet |
climate change hydrology uncertainty Europe impacts water Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
description |
The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts |
author_facet |
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Lamprini V. Papadimitriou Manolis G. Grillakis Ioannis K. Tsanis Klaus Wyser John Caesar Richard A. Betts |
author_sort |
Aristeidis G. Koutroulis |
title |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_short |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_full |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_fullStr |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Assessment |
title_sort |
simulating hydrological impacts under climate change: implications from methodological differences of a pan european assessment |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 https://doaj.org/article/e377afa0d715452ba86d39ee9e28b6d9 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Water, Vol 10, Iss 10, p 1331 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/10/1331 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w10101331 https://doaj.org/article/e377afa0d715452ba86d39ee9e28b6d9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101331 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1331 |
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1766195479634247680 |