The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO 2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of clim...
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2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 https://doaj.org/article/e324750e9a7743cc94547358d398759f |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e324750e9a7743cc94547358d398759f 2023-05-15T16:41:22+02:00 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity A. M. Haywood J. C. Tindall H. J. Dowsett A. M. Dolan K. M. Foley S. J. Hunter D. J. Hill W.-L. Chan A. Abe-Ouchi C. Stepanek G. Lohmann D. Chandan W. R. Peltier N. Tan C. Contoux G. Ramstein X. Li Z. Zhang C. Guo K. H. Nisancioglu Q. Zhang Q. Li Y. Kamae M. A. Chandler L. E. Sohl B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. Feng E. C. Brady A. S. von der Heydt M. L. J. Baatsen D. J. Lunt 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 https://doaj.org/article/e324750e9a7743cc94547358d398759f EN eng Copernicus Publications https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/2095/2020/cp-16-2095-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/e324750e9a7743cc94547358d398759f Climate of the Past, Vol 16, Pp 2095-2123 (2020) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 2023-01-08T01:26:53Z The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO 2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘ C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘ C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘ C over land and 2.8 ∘ C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 ∘ N and 60 ∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO 2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO 2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘ C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Climate of the Past 16 6 2095 2123 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 A. M. Haywood J. C. Tindall H. J. Dowsett A. M. Dolan K. M. Foley S. J. Hunter D. J. Hill W.-L. Chan A. Abe-Ouchi C. Stepanek G. Lohmann D. Chandan W. R. Peltier N. Tan C. Contoux G. Ramstein X. Li Z. Zhang C. Guo K. H. Nisancioglu Q. Zhang Q. Li Y. Kamae M. A. Chandler L. E. Sohl B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. Feng E. C. Brady A. S. von der Heydt M. L. J. Baatsen D. J. Lunt The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO 2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘ C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘ C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘ C over land and 2.8 ∘ C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 ∘ N and 60 ∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO 2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO 2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘ C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. M. Haywood J. C. Tindall H. J. Dowsett A. M. Dolan K. M. Foley S. J. Hunter D. J. Hill W.-L. Chan A. Abe-Ouchi C. Stepanek G. Lohmann D. Chandan W. R. Peltier N. Tan C. Contoux G. Ramstein X. Li Z. Zhang C. Guo K. H. Nisancioglu Q. Zhang Q. Li Y. Kamae M. A. Chandler L. E. Sohl B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. Feng E. C. Brady A. S. von der Heydt M. L. J. Baatsen D. J. Lunt |
author_facet |
A. M. Haywood J. C. Tindall H. J. Dowsett A. M. Dolan K. M. Foley S. J. Hunter D. J. Hill W.-L. Chan A. Abe-Ouchi C. Stepanek G. Lohmann D. Chandan W. R. Peltier N. Tan C. Contoux G. Ramstein X. Li Z. Zhang C. Guo K. H. Nisancioglu Q. Zhang Q. Li Y. Kamae M. A. Chandler L. E. Sohl B. L. Otto-Bliesner R. Feng E. C. Brady A. S. von der Heydt M. L. J. Baatsen D. J. Lunt |
author_sort |
A. M. Haywood |
title |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_short |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_full |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_fullStr |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
title_sort |
pliocene model intercomparison project phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 https://doaj.org/article/e324750e9a7743cc94547358d398759f |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 16, Pp 2095-2123 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/2095/2020/cp-16-2095-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/e324750e9a7743cc94547358d398759f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2095 |
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2123 |
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1766031797521481728 |