Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe?
A recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters , ‘Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe’, by Sirocko et al (2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16704) claims that ‘weak solar activity is empirically related to extremely cold winter conditions in Europe’ based on analyses of documentary evide...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 https://doaj.org/article/e2d1a2c9104f4136900a99eeb77cc3e7 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e2d1a2c9104f4136900a99eeb77cc3e7 2023-09-05T13:21:33+02:00 Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? G J van Oldenborgh A T J de Laat J Luterbacher W J Ingram T J Osborn 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 https://doaj.org/article/e2d1a2c9104f4136900a99eeb77cc3e7 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/e2d1a2c9104f4136900a99eeb77cc3e7 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 2, p 024014 (2013) 92.70.Qr solar variability sunspot numbers 11-year cycle solar minimum severe European winter North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 2023-08-13T00:37:40Z A recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters , ‘Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe’, by Sirocko et al (2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16704) claims that ‘weak solar activity is empirically related to extremely cold winter conditions in Europe’ based on analyses of documentary evidence of freezing of the River Rhine in Germany and of the Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (20C). However, our attempt to reproduce these findings failed. The documentary data appear to be selected subjectively and agree neither with instrumental observations nor with two other reconstructions based on documentary data. None of these datasets show significant connection between solar activity and winter severity in Europe beyond a common trend. The analysis of Sirocko et al of the 20C circulation and temperature is inconsistent with their time series analysis. A physically-motivated consistent methodology again fails to support the reported conclusions. We conclude that multiple lines of evidence contradict the findings of Sirocko et al . Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 8 2 024014 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
92.70.Qr solar variability sunspot numbers 11-year cycle solar minimum severe European winter North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
92.70.Qr solar variability sunspot numbers 11-year cycle solar minimum severe European winter North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 G J van Oldenborgh A T J de Laat J Luterbacher W J Ingram T J Osborn Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? |
topic_facet |
92.70.Qr solar variability sunspot numbers 11-year cycle solar minimum severe European winter North Atlantic Oscillation Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
A recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters , ‘Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe’, by Sirocko et al (2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16704) claims that ‘weak solar activity is empirically related to extremely cold winter conditions in Europe’ based on analyses of documentary evidence of freezing of the River Rhine in Germany and of the Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (20C). However, our attempt to reproduce these findings failed. The documentary data appear to be selected subjectively and agree neither with instrumental observations nor with two other reconstructions based on documentary data. None of these datasets show significant connection between solar activity and winter severity in Europe beyond a common trend. The analysis of Sirocko et al of the 20C circulation and temperature is inconsistent with their time series analysis. A physically-motivated consistent methodology again fails to support the reported conclusions. We conclude that multiple lines of evidence contradict the findings of Sirocko et al . |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
G J van Oldenborgh A T J de Laat J Luterbacher W J Ingram T J Osborn |
author_facet |
G J van Oldenborgh A T J de Laat J Luterbacher W J Ingram T J Osborn |
author_sort |
G J van Oldenborgh |
title |
Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? |
title_short |
Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? |
title_full |
Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? |
title_fullStr |
Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe? |
title_sort |
claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in europe? |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 https://doaj.org/article/e2d1a2c9104f4136900a99eeb77cc3e7 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 2, p 024014 (2013) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/e2d1a2c9104f4136900a99eeb77cc3e7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024014 |
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1776202157266042880 |