Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Air temperature increases thermally degrade permafrost, which has widespread impacts on engineering design, resource development, and environmental protection in cold regions. This study evaluates the potential thermal degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from the 1960s to...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e2636df504aa40a18f843728f8109e66 2023-05-15T17:55:17+02:00 Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Y. Ran X. Li G. Cheng 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-595-2018 https://doaj.org/article/e2636df504aa40a18f843728f8109e66 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/595/2018/tc-12-595-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-595-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/e2636df504aa40a18f843728f8109e66 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 595-608 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-595-2018 2022-12-31T14:44:55Z Air temperature increases thermally degrade permafrost, which has widespread impacts on engineering design, resource development, and environmental protection in cold regions. This study evaluates the potential thermal degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from the 1960s to the 2000s using estimated decadal mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) by integrating remote-sensing-based estimates of mean annual land surface temperatures (MASTs), leaf area index (LAI) and fractional snow cover values, and decadal mean MAAT date from 152 weather stations with a geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results reflect a continuous rise of approximately 0.04 °C a −1 in the decadal mean MAAT values over the past half century. A thermal-condition classification matrix is used to convert modelled MAATs to permafrost thermal type. Results show that the climate warming has led to a thermal degradation of permafrost in the past half century. The total area of thermally degraded permafrost is approximately 153.76 × 10 4 km 2 , which corresponds to 88 % of the permafrost area in the 1960s. The thermal condition of 75.2 % of the very cold permafrost, 89.6 % of the cold permafrost, 90.3 % of the cool permafrost, 92.3 % of the warm permafrost, and 32.8 % of the very warm permafrost has been degraded to lower levels of thermal condition. Approximately 49.4 % of the very warm permafrost and 96 % of the likely thawing permafrost has degraded to seasonally frozen ground. The mean elevations of the very cold, cold, cool, warm, very warm, and likely thawing permafrost areas increased by 88, 97, 155, 185, 161, and 250 m, respectively. The degradation mainly occurred from the 1960s to the 1970s and from the 1990s to the 2000s. This degradation may lead to increased risks to infrastructure, reductions in ecosystem resilience, increased flood risks, and positive climate feedback effects. It therefore affects the well-being of millions of people and sustainable development at the Third Pole. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 12 2 595 608 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 Y. Ran X. Li G. Cheng Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Air temperature increases thermally degrade permafrost, which has widespread impacts on engineering design, resource development, and environmental protection in cold regions. This study evaluates the potential thermal degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from the 1960s to the 2000s using estimated decadal mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) by integrating remote-sensing-based estimates of mean annual land surface temperatures (MASTs), leaf area index (LAI) and fractional snow cover values, and decadal mean MAAT date from 152 weather stations with a geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results reflect a continuous rise of approximately 0.04 °C a −1 in the decadal mean MAAT values over the past half century. A thermal-condition classification matrix is used to convert modelled MAATs to permafrost thermal type. Results show that the climate warming has led to a thermal degradation of permafrost in the past half century. The total area of thermally degraded permafrost is approximately 153.76 × 10 4 km 2 , which corresponds to 88 % of the permafrost area in the 1960s. The thermal condition of 75.2 % of the very cold permafrost, 89.6 % of the cold permafrost, 90.3 % of the cool permafrost, 92.3 % of the warm permafrost, and 32.8 % of the very warm permafrost has been degraded to lower levels of thermal condition. Approximately 49.4 % of the very warm permafrost and 96 % of the likely thawing permafrost has degraded to seasonally frozen ground. The mean elevations of the very cold, cold, cool, warm, very warm, and likely thawing permafrost areas increased by 88, 97, 155, 185, 161, and 250 m, respectively. The degradation mainly occurred from the 1960s to the 1970s and from the 1990s to the 2000s. This degradation may lead to increased risks to infrastructure, reductions in ecosystem resilience, increased flood risks, and positive climate feedback effects. It therefore affects the well-being of millions of people and sustainable development at the Third Pole. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Y. Ran X. Li G. Cheng |
author_facet |
Y. Ran X. Li G. Cheng |
author_sort |
Y. Ran |
title |
Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau |
title_short |
Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau |
title_full |
Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau |
title_fullStr |
Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau |
title_sort |
climate warming over the past half century has led to thermal degradation of permafrost on the qinghai–tibet plateau |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-595-2018 https://doaj.org/article/e2636df504aa40a18f843728f8109e66 |
genre |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 595-608 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/595/2018/tc-12-595-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-595-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/e2636df504aa40a18f843728f8109e66 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-595-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
595 |
op_container_end_page |
608 |
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1766163207188119552 |