Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change
Terrestrial ecosystems in China are threatened by land use and future climate change. Understanding the effects of these changes on vegetation and the climate-vegetation interactions is critical for vegetation preservation and mitigation. However, land-use impacts on vegetation are neglected in terr...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e21887a9423644e081b262de7d8e0429 2024-01-07T09:47:07+01:00 Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Malak Henchiri Dan Cao Sha Zhang Yun Bai Shanshan Yang 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071024 https://doaj.org/article/e21887a9423644e081b262de7d8e0429 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/7/1024 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13071024 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/e21887a9423644e081b262de7d8e0429 Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 7, p 1024 (2022) CMIP5 CSCS PNV representative concentration pathways (RCPs) succession terrestrial ecosystems Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071024 2023-12-10T01:43:15Z Terrestrial ecosystems in China are threatened by land use and future climate change. Understanding the effects of these changes on vegetation and the climate-vegetation interactions is critical for vegetation preservation and mitigation. However, land-use impacts on vegetation are neglected in terrestrial ecosystems exploration, and a deep understanding of land-use impacts on vegetation dynamics is lacking. Additionally, few studies have examined the contribution of vegetation succession to changes in vegetation dynamics. To fill the above gaps in the field, the spatiotemporal distribution of terrestrial ecosystems under the current land use and climate baseline (1970–2000) was examined in this study using the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System (CSCS) model. Moreover, the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystems and their succession under future climate scenarios (the 2030s–2080s) were quantitatively projected and compared. The results demonstrated that under the current situation, vegetation without human disturbance was mainly distributed in high elevation regions and less than 10% of the national area. For future vegetation dynamics, more than 58% of tundra and alpine steppe would shrink. Semidesert would respond to climate change with an expansion of 39.49 × 10 4 km 2 , including the succession of the steppe to semidesert. Although some advancement of the temperate forest at the expense of substantial dieback of tundra and alpine steppe is expected to occur, this century would witness a considerable shrinkage of them, especially in RCP8.5, at approximately 55.06 × 10 4 km 2 . Overall, a warmer and wetter climate would be conducive to the occurrence and development of the CSCS ecosystems. These results offer new insights on the potential ecosystem response to land use and climate change over the Chinese domain, and on creating targeted policies for effective adaptation to these changes and implementation of ecosystem protection measures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 13 7 1024 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
CMIP5 CSCS PNV representative concentration pathways (RCPs) succession terrestrial ecosystems Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
CMIP5 CSCS PNV representative concentration pathways (RCPs) succession terrestrial ecosystems Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Malak Henchiri Dan Cao Sha Zhang Yun Bai Shanshan Yang Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change |
topic_facet |
CMIP5 CSCS PNV representative concentration pathways (RCPs) succession terrestrial ecosystems Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Terrestrial ecosystems in China are threatened by land use and future climate change. Understanding the effects of these changes on vegetation and the climate-vegetation interactions is critical for vegetation preservation and mitigation. However, land-use impacts on vegetation are neglected in terrestrial ecosystems exploration, and a deep understanding of land-use impacts on vegetation dynamics is lacking. Additionally, few studies have examined the contribution of vegetation succession to changes in vegetation dynamics. To fill the above gaps in the field, the spatiotemporal distribution of terrestrial ecosystems under the current land use and climate baseline (1970–2000) was examined in this study using the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System (CSCS) model. Moreover, the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystems and their succession under future climate scenarios (the 2030s–2080s) were quantitatively projected and compared. The results demonstrated that under the current situation, vegetation without human disturbance was mainly distributed in high elevation regions and less than 10% of the national area. For future vegetation dynamics, more than 58% of tundra and alpine steppe would shrink. Semidesert would respond to climate change with an expansion of 39.49 × 10 4 km 2 , including the succession of the steppe to semidesert. Although some advancement of the temperate forest at the expense of substantial dieback of tundra and alpine steppe is expected to occur, this century would witness a considerable shrinkage of them, especially in RCP8.5, at approximately 55.06 × 10 4 km 2 . Overall, a warmer and wetter climate would be conducive to the occurrence and development of the CSCS ecosystems. These results offer new insights on the potential ecosystem response to land use and climate change over the Chinese domain, and on creating targeted policies for effective adaptation to these changes and implementation of ecosystem protection measures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Malak Henchiri Dan Cao Sha Zhang Yun Bai Shanshan Yang |
author_facet |
Shuaishuai Li Jiahua Zhang Malak Henchiri Dan Cao Sha Zhang Yun Bai Shanshan Yang |
author_sort |
Shuaishuai Li |
title |
Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal Variations of Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems in Response to Land Use and Future Climate Change |
title_sort |
spatiotemporal variations of chinese terrestrial ecosystems in response to land use and future climate change |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071024 https://doaj.org/article/e21887a9423644e081b262de7d8e0429 |
genre |
Tundra |
genre_facet |
Tundra |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 7, p 1024 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/7/1024 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13071024 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/e21887a9423644e081b262de7d8e0429 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071024 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1024 |
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1787429086419746816 |