Assessing Thailand’s 1-3-7 surveillance strategy in accelerating malaria elimination

• Published in: Malaria Journal
• Main Authors: Prayuth Sudathip, Sathapana Naowarat, Suravadee Kitchakarn, Deyer Gopinath, Donal Bisanzio, Niparueradee Pinyajeerapat, David Sintasath, Jui A. Shah
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2022
• Subjects: Elimination; Surveillance; 1-3-7 Strategy; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-022-04229-z; https://doaj.org/article/e17e9e03385b4d3e9f8c73d8b9673ff5

Abstract Background Thailand’s strong malaria elimination programme relies on effective implementation of its 1-3-7 surveillance strategy, which was endorsed and implemented nationwide in 2016. For each confirmed malaria patient, the Ministry of Public Health’s Division of Vector Borne Diseases (DVBD) ensures completion of case notification within 1 day, case investigation within 3 days, and foci investigation within 7 days. To date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of the performance and achievements of the 1-3-7 surveillance strategy although such results could help Thailand’s future malaria elimination strategic planning. Methods This study examined adherence to the 1-3-7 protocols, tracked progress against set targets, and examined geographic variations in implementation of the 1-3-7 strategy in the programme’s initial 5 years. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis with seasonal decomposition assessed the plausible implementation effect of the 1-3-7 strategy on malaria incidence in the programme’s initial 5 years. The quantitative analysis included all confirmed malaria cases from public health and non-governmental community facilities from October 2014 to September 2021 (fiscal year [FY] 2015 to FY 2021) (n = 77,405). The spatial analysis included active foci with known geocoordinates that reported more than five cases from FY 2018 to FY 2021. Results From FY 2017 to FY 2021, on-time case notification improved from 24.4% to 89.3%, case investigations from 58.0% to 96.5%, and foci investigations from 37.9% to 87.2%. Adherence to timeliness protocols did not show statistically significant variation by area risk classification. However, adherence to 1-3-7 protocols showed a marked spatial heterogeneity among active foci, and the ARIMA model showed a statistically significant acceleration in the reduction of malaria incidence. The 1-3-7 strategy national indicators and targets in Thailand have shown progressive success, and most targets were achieved for FY 2021. ...