Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach

The soils of the northern hemispheric permafrost region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon. A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and therefore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthropogenic climate warming progresses much of this permafrost is expecte...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Biogeosciences
Main Authors: A. H. MacDougall, R. Knutti
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
https://doaj.org/article/e0e3d096c9a34e94b52dbedf31f26fcd
id ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e0e3d096c9a34e94b52dbedf31f26fcd
record_format openpolar
spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e0e3d096c9a34e94b52dbedf31f26fcd 2023-05-15T15:10:55+02:00 Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach A. H. MacDougall R. Knutti 2016-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016 https://doaj.org/article/e0e3d096c9a34e94b52dbedf31f26fcd EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/2123/2016/bg-13-2123-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016 https://doaj.org/article/e0e3d096c9a34e94b52dbedf31f26fcd Biogeosciences, Vol 13, Iss 7, Pp 2123-2136 (2016) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016 2022-12-31T01:51:39Z The soils of the northern hemispheric permafrost region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon. A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and therefore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthropogenic climate warming progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw. Here we conduct perturbed model experiments on a climate model of intermediate complexity, with an improved permafrost carbon module, to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils by the year 2100 and 2300 CE. We estimate that by year 2100 the permafrost region may release between 56 (13 to 118) Pg C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 102 (27 to 199) Pg C under RCP 8.5, with substantially more to be released under each scenario by the year 2300. Our analysis suggests that the two parameters that contribute most to the uncertainty in the release of carbon from permafrost soils are the size of the non-passive fraction of the permafrost carbon pool and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. A subset of 25 model variants are integrated 8000 years into the future under continued RCP forcing. Under the moderate RCP 4.5 forcing a remnant near-surface permafrost region persists in the high Arctic, eventually developing a new permafrost carbon pool. Overall our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon cycle feedback to climate change will make a significant contribution to climate change over the next centuries and millennia, releasing a quantity of carbon 3 to 54 % of the cumulative anthropogenic total. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Biogeosciences 13 7 2123 2136
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Ecology
QH540-549.5
Life
QH501-531
Geology
QE1-996.5
spellingShingle Ecology
QH540-549.5
Life
QH501-531
Geology
QE1-996.5
A. H. MacDougall
R. Knutti
Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
topic_facet Ecology
QH540-549.5
Life
QH501-531
Geology
QE1-996.5
description The soils of the northern hemispheric permafrost region are estimated to contain 1100 to 1500 Pg of carbon. A substantial fraction of this carbon has been frozen and therefore protected from microbial decay for millennia. As anthropogenic climate warming progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw. Here we conduct perturbed model experiments on a climate model of intermediate complexity, with an improved permafrost carbon module, to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils by the year 2100 and 2300 CE. We estimate that by year 2100 the permafrost region may release between 56 (13 to 118) Pg C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 102 (27 to 199) Pg C under RCP 8.5, with substantially more to be released under each scenario by the year 2300. Our analysis suggests that the two parameters that contribute most to the uncertainty in the release of carbon from permafrost soils are the size of the non-passive fraction of the permafrost carbon pool and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. A subset of 25 model variants are integrated 8000 years into the future under continued RCP forcing. Under the moderate RCP 4.5 forcing a remnant near-surface permafrost region persists in the high Arctic, eventually developing a new permafrost carbon pool. Overall our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon cycle feedback to climate change will make a significant contribution to climate change over the next centuries and millennia, releasing a quantity of carbon 3 to 54 % of the cumulative anthropogenic total.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author A. H. MacDougall
R. Knutti
author_facet A. H. MacDougall
R. Knutti
author_sort A. H. MacDougall
title Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
title_short Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
title_full Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
title_fullStr Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
title_full_unstemmed Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
title_sort projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2016
url https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
https://doaj.org/article/e0e3d096c9a34e94b52dbedf31f26fcd
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Climate change
permafrost
genre_facet Arctic
Climate change
permafrost
op_source Biogeosciences, Vol 13, Iss 7, Pp 2123-2136 (2016)
op_relation http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/2123/2016/bg-13-2123-2016.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170
https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189
1726-4170
1726-4189
doi:10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
https://doaj.org/article/e0e3d096c9a34e94b52dbedf31f26fcd
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
container_title Biogeosciences
container_volume 13
container_issue 7
container_start_page 2123
op_container_end_page 2136
_version_ 1766341853565681664