Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada
This study provides an improved statistical modelling framework for understanding historical variability and trends in water constituent fluxes in subarctic western Canada. We evaluated total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes for the Hay, Liard and Peel tributaries of the Mac...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e044765d67524446b4eaf7b28d95ffbb 2023-05-15T17:09:40+02:00 Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada Rajesh R. Shrestha Terry D. Prowse Lois Tso 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.161 https://doaj.org/article/e044765d67524446b4eaf7b28d95ffbb EN eng IWA Publishing http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/50/5/1424 https://doaj.org/toc/1998-9563 https://doaj.org/toc/2224-7955 1998-9563 2224-7955 doi:10.2166/nh.2019.161 https://doaj.org/article/e044765d67524446b4eaf7b28d95ffbb Hydrology Research, Vol 50, Iss 5, Pp 1424-1439 (2019) c–q relationship doc and tp fluxes historical trends loadest model statistical modelling subarctic River lake and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Physical geography GB3-5030 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.161 2022-12-31T03:12:22Z This study provides an improved statistical modelling framework for understanding historical variability and trends in water constituent fluxes in subarctic western Canada. We evaluated total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes for the Hay, Liard and Peel tributaries of the Mackenzie River. The TP and DOC concentrations primarily exhibit chemodynamic relationships with discharge, with the exception of the chemostatic relationship between DOC and discharge for the Hay River. With this understanding, we explored a number of enhancements in the load estimation model that included the use of (i) linear regression and logarithmic models, (ii) air-temperature as an alternate input variable and (iii) quantile mapping for bias-correction. Further, we evaluated uncertainties in the simulation of fluxes and trends by using a bootstrapping method. The modelled TP and DOC fluxes show considerable seasonal and interannual variability that generally follow the runoff dynamics. The annual and seasonal trends are mostly small and insignificant, with the largest significant increases occurring in the winter months. These trends are amplified compared with discharge, suggesting the possibility of pronounced changes with large changes in discharge. Additionally, the results provide evidence that directly using limited water constituent samples for trend analysis can be problematic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Mackenzie river Subarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Canada Hay River ENVELOPE(-115.847,-115.847,60.787,60.787) Liard ENVELOPE(-67.417,-67.417,-66.850,-66.850) Mackenzie River Hydrology Research 50 5 1424 1439 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
c–q relationship doc and tp fluxes historical trends loadest model statistical modelling subarctic River lake and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Physical geography GB3-5030 |
spellingShingle |
c–q relationship doc and tp fluxes historical trends loadest model statistical modelling subarctic River lake and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Physical geography GB3-5030 Rajesh R. Shrestha Terry D. Prowse Lois Tso Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada |
topic_facet |
c–q relationship doc and tp fluxes historical trends loadest model statistical modelling subarctic River lake and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Physical geography GB3-5030 |
description |
This study provides an improved statistical modelling framework for understanding historical variability and trends in water constituent fluxes in subarctic western Canada. We evaluated total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes for the Hay, Liard and Peel tributaries of the Mackenzie River. The TP and DOC concentrations primarily exhibit chemodynamic relationships with discharge, with the exception of the chemostatic relationship between DOC and discharge for the Hay River. With this understanding, we explored a number of enhancements in the load estimation model that included the use of (i) linear regression and logarithmic models, (ii) air-temperature as an alternate input variable and (iii) quantile mapping for bias-correction. Further, we evaluated uncertainties in the simulation of fluxes and trends by using a bootstrapping method. The modelled TP and DOC fluxes show considerable seasonal and interannual variability that generally follow the runoff dynamics. The annual and seasonal trends are mostly small and insignificant, with the largest significant increases occurring in the winter months. These trends are amplified compared with discharge, suggesting the possibility of pronounced changes with large changes in discharge. Additionally, the results provide evidence that directly using limited water constituent samples for trend analysis can be problematic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rajesh R. Shrestha Terry D. Prowse Lois Tso |
author_facet |
Rajesh R. Shrestha Terry D. Prowse Lois Tso |
author_sort |
Rajesh R. Shrestha |
title |
Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada |
title_short |
Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada |
title_full |
Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada |
title_fullStr |
Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the Mackenzie River, Canada |
title_sort |
modelling historical variability of phosphorus and organic carbon fluxes to the mackenzie river, canada |
publisher |
IWA Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.161 https://doaj.org/article/e044765d67524446b4eaf7b28d95ffbb |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-115.847,-115.847,60.787,60.787) ENVELOPE(-67.417,-67.417,-66.850,-66.850) |
geographic |
Canada Hay River Liard Mackenzie River |
geographic_facet |
Canada Hay River Liard Mackenzie River |
genre |
Mackenzie river Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Mackenzie river Subarctic |
op_source |
Hydrology Research, Vol 50, Iss 5, Pp 1424-1439 (2019) |
op_relation |
http://hr.iwaponline.com/content/50/5/1424 https://doaj.org/toc/1998-9563 https://doaj.org/toc/2224-7955 1998-9563 2224-7955 doi:10.2166/nh.2019.161 https://doaj.org/article/e044765d67524446b4eaf7b28d95ffbb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.161 |
container_title |
Hydrology Research |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1424 |
op_container_end_page |
1439 |
_version_ |
1766065814667001856 |