Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region
The paper describes the algorithm and the results of the seismic hazard estimate in the Sakhalin and Southern Kurils region based on the data of the Japan Regional Catalogue (JMA). A nonlinear differential equation of the second order is used as a mathematical model, and algorithms for optimization...
Published in: | Geosystems of Transition Zones |
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Language: | English Russian |
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Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук, Южно-Сахалинск, Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт морской геологии и геофизики
2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112 https://doaj.org/article/e027fed86bfb49b5ac04851919ad5fc2 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:e027fed86bfb49b5ac04851919ad5fc2 2023-05-15T18:08:49+02:00 Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region Alexander I. Malyshev Lidiia K. Malysheva 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112 https://doaj.org/article/e027fed86bfb49b5ac04851919ad5fc2 EN RU eng rus Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук, Южно-Сахалинск, Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт морской геологии и геофизики http://journal.imgg.ru/web/full/f2021-2-1.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2541-8912 https://doaj.org/toc/2713-2161 https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112 2541-8912 2713-2161 https://doaj.org/article/e027fed86bfb49b5ac04851919ad5fc2 Геосистемы переходных зон, Vol 5, Iss 2, Pp 84-112 (2021) earthquake seismic energy foreshock рrecedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112 2022-12-31T12:54:09Z The paper describes the algorithm and the results of the seismic hazard estimate in the Sakhalin and Southern Kurils region based on the data of the Japan Regional Catalogue (JMA). A nonlinear differential equation of the second order is used as a mathematical model, and algorithms for optimization and predictability estimation are presented by the author's solutions. The forecasting algorithm is based on the search for seismic activity zones in which the current activity trends correspond to foreshock sequences recorded before strong earthquakes (precedents) that have already occurred. The earthquake time is calculated with extrapolating the detected trends to the level of activity that occurred at the time of the precedent earthquake. By the example of precedent foreshock sequences in Japan, it is shown that the lead time of such a forecast reaches 10–15 years and its implementation is due to the preservation and stability of the identified trends. A map of potentially dangerous zones for Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands and some examples of calculating the time of strong earthquakes according to the JMA catalogue as of August 31, 2018 are presented. Action sequence in identifying the potentially dangerous trends in seismic activity and the specifics of possible use of the technique in the Sakhalin region are considered. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sakhalin Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geosystems of Transition Zones 5 2 84 112 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English Russian |
topic |
earthquake seismic energy foreshock рrecedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 |
spellingShingle |
earthquake seismic energy foreshock рrecedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 Alexander I. Malyshev Lidiia K. Malysheva Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region |
topic_facet |
earthquake seismic energy foreshock рrecedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction TA703-712 Petrology QE420-499 |
description |
The paper describes the algorithm and the results of the seismic hazard estimate in the Sakhalin and Southern Kurils region based on the data of the Japan Regional Catalogue (JMA). A nonlinear differential equation of the second order is used as a mathematical model, and algorithms for optimization and predictability estimation are presented by the author's solutions. The forecasting algorithm is based on the search for seismic activity zones in which the current activity trends correspond to foreshock sequences recorded before strong earthquakes (precedents) that have already occurred. The earthquake time is calculated with extrapolating the detected trends to the level of activity that occurred at the time of the precedent earthquake. By the example of precedent foreshock sequences in Japan, it is shown that the lead time of such a forecast reaches 10–15 years and its implementation is due to the preservation and stability of the identified trends. A map of potentially dangerous zones for Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands and some examples of calculating the time of strong earthquakes according to the JMA catalogue as of August 31, 2018 are presented. Action sequence in identifying the potentially dangerous trends in seismic activity and the specifics of possible use of the technique in the Sakhalin region are considered. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alexander I. Malyshev Lidiia K. Malysheva |
author_facet |
Alexander I. Malyshev Lidiia K. Malysheva |
author_sort |
Alexander I. Malyshev |
title |
Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region |
title_short |
Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region |
title_full |
Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region |
title_fullStr |
Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region |
title_sort |
precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the sakhalin and the southern kurils region |
publisher |
Дальневосточного отделения Российской академии наук, Южно-Сахалинск, Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки Институт морской геологии и геофизики |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112 https://doaj.org/article/e027fed86bfb49b5ac04851919ad5fc2 |
genre |
Sakhalin |
genre_facet |
Sakhalin |
op_source |
Геосистемы переходных зон, Vol 5, Iss 2, Pp 84-112 (2021) |
op_relation |
http://journal.imgg.ru/web/full/f2021-2-1.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2541-8912 https://doaj.org/toc/2713-2161 https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112 2541-8912 2713-2161 https://doaj.org/article/e027fed86bfb49b5ac04851919ad5fc2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112 |
container_title |
Geosystems of Transition Zones |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
84 |
op_container_end_page |
112 |
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1766181145432555520 |