Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain
Abstract Precipitation in Europe shows natural fluctuations that differ considerably between seasons and geographical regions. A number of studies have linked local or seasonal rainfall variability to various long-distance air pressure differences in north–south or west–east direction. This paper pr...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dfe534c0e99e43879510f6493aa4c2b9 2023-05-15T15:07:54+02:00 Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain Gisela Müller-Plath Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Sebastian Lüning 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w https://doaj.org/article/dfe534c0e99e43879510f6493aa4c2b9 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/dfe534c0e99e43879510f6493aa4c2b9 Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2022) Medicine R Science Q article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w 2022-12-31T02:32:38Z Abstract Precipitation in Europe shows natural fluctuations that differ considerably between seasons and geographical regions. A number of studies have linked local or seasonal rainfall variability to various long-distance air pressure differences in north–south or west–east direction. This paper presents the first continent-wide analysis of European rainfall variability on a month-by-month and country-by-country basis. We calculated Pearson r values for unsmoothed monthly rainfall data of 39 European countries over the period 1950–2019 with five potential climatic drivers, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP), and two indices of Mediterranean Oscillation (MOI2, WeMOI). For a variety of countries and months we found substantial and statistically significant r values of up to r = 0.7 and more. The dynamic temporal-spatial evolution of the Pearson correlations was mapped out across the continent, tracking the gradual or abrupt expansion, displacement and subsequent waning of the various effects over the course of the year. The correlation analysis was complemented by best subset multiple regression, controlling for intercorrelation of the potential drivers. Our results may help to improve short- to midterm rainfall prognoses in Europe and provide important calibration data for the further refinement of climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Scientific Reports 12 1 |
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Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Gisela Müller-Plath Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Sebastian Lüning Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Abstract Precipitation in Europe shows natural fluctuations that differ considerably between seasons and geographical regions. A number of studies have linked local or seasonal rainfall variability to various long-distance air pressure differences in north–south or west–east direction. This paper presents the first continent-wide analysis of European rainfall variability on a month-by-month and country-by-country basis. We calculated Pearson r values for unsmoothed monthly rainfall data of 39 European countries over the period 1950–2019 with five potential climatic drivers, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP), and two indices of Mediterranean Oscillation (MOI2, WeMOI). For a variety of countries and months we found substantial and statistically significant r values of up to r = 0.7 and more. The dynamic temporal-spatial evolution of the Pearson correlations was mapped out across the continent, tracking the gradual or abrupt expansion, displacement and subsequent waning of the various effects over the course of the year. The correlation analysis was complemented by best subset multiple regression, controlling for intercorrelation of the potential drivers. Our results may help to improve short- to midterm rainfall prognoses in Europe and provide important calibration data for the further refinement of climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gisela Müller-Plath Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Sebastian Lüning |
author_facet |
Gisela Müller-Plath Horst-Joachim Lüdecke Sebastian Lüning |
author_sort |
Gisela Müller-Plath |
title |
Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain |
title_short |
Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain |
title_full |
Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain |
title_fullStr |
Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-distance air pressure differences correlate with European rain |
title_sort |
long-distance air pressure differences correlate with european rain |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w https://doaj.org/article/dfe534c0e99e43879510f6493aa4c2b9 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/dfe534c0e99e43879510f6493aa4c2b9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14028-w |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766339325708992512 |