Defining Seropositivity Thresholds for Use in Trachoma Elimination Studies.

• Published in: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
• Main Authors: Stephanie J Migchelsen, Diana L Martin, Khamphoua Southisombath, Patrick Turyaguma, Anne Heggen, Peter Paul Rubangakene, Hassan Joof, Pateh Makalo, Gretchen Cooley, Sarah Gwyn, Anthony W Solomon, Martin J Holland, Paul Courtright, Rebecca Willis, Neal D E Alexander, David C W Mabey, Chrissy H Roberts
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2017
• Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005230; https://doaj.org/article/df8a8bf16d8042a99a3f770937bb3040

BACKGROUND:Efforts are underway to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. Programmatic guidelines are based on clinical signs that correlate poorly with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection in post-treatment and low-endemicity settings. Age-specific seroprevalence of anti Ct Pgp3 antibodies has been proposed as an alternative indicator of the need for intervention. To standardise the use of these tools, it is necessary to develop an analytical approach that performs reproducibly both within and between studies. METHODOLOGY:Dried blood spots were collected in 2014 from children aged 1-9 years in Laos (n = 952) and Uganda (n = 2700) and from people aged 1-90 years in The Gambia (n = 1868). Anti-Pgp3 antibodies were detected by ELISA. A number of visual and statistical analytical approaches for defining serological status were compared. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Seroprevalence was estimated at 11.3% (Laos), 13.4% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia) by visual inspection of the inflection point. The expectation-maximisation algorithm estimated seroprevalence at 10.4% (Laos), 24.3% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia). Finite mixture model estimates were 15.6% (Laos), 17.1% (Uganda) and 26.2% (The Gambia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using a threshold calibrated against external reference specimens estimated the seroprevalence at 6.7% (Laos), 6.8% (Uganda) and 20.9% (The Gambia) when the threshold was set to optimise Youden's J index. The ROC curve analysis was found to estimate seroprevalence at lower levels than estimates based on thresholds established using internal reference data. Thresholds defined using internal reference threshold methods did not vary substantially between population samples. CONCLUSIONS:Internally calibrated approaches to threshold specification are reproducible and consistent and thus have advantages over methods that require external calibrators. We propose that future serological analyses in trachoma use a finite mixture model or expectation-maximisation ...