Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe
We present an assessment of climate change pro jections over the European region for the 21st century from the ensembles of CMIP3 global model experiments and PRUDENCE regional climate model experiments. The A2, A1B, and B1 IPCC emission scenarios are considered. A brief review is also presented of...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dec3fd58abeb4dcca370102c065491d4 2023-05-15T17:36:01+02:00 Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe Giorgi F. Coppola E. 2009-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 https://doaj.org/article/dec3fd58abeb4dcca370102c065491d4 EN eng EDP Sciences dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2100-014X doi:10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 2100-014X https://doaj.org/article/dec3fd58abeb4dcca370102c065491d4 EPJ Web of Conferences, Vol 1, Pp 29-46 (2009) Physics QC1-999 article 2009 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 2022-12-31T09:54:06Z We present an assessment of climate change pro jections over the European region for the 21st century from the ensembles of CMIP3 global model experiments and PRUDENCE regional climate model experiments. The A2, A1B, and B1 IPCC emission scenarios are considered. A brief review is also presented of the literature available on future European climate pro jections. In all emission scenarios the European region shows maximum warming of up to several degrees C over the Mediterranean region in summer and over northeastern Europe in winter. The precipitation change signal shows a north-south dipolar structure, with increasing precipitation over Northern Europe and decreasing over southern Europe. This structure migrates northward from the winter to the summer and is tied to the north-south motion of an increasing anticyclonic circulation cell over the North Atlantic-European sector. Temperature interannual variability decreases in winter over central and northern Europe and increases in summer throughout Europe. Precipitation interannual variability shows a predominant increase, most pronounced in summer. The seasonal temperature anomaly probability density functions (PDFs) show a shift and a widening and flattening in future climate conditions, especially in summer, which is indicative of pronounced increases of extreme hot seasons. The seasonal precipitation anomaly PDFs show pronounced changes over Southern Europe in summer, with a strong increase of very dry seasons. In general, the magnitude of future climate change increases with the greenhouse gas forcing. A broad consensus is found between the pro jections obtained with the CMIP3 and PRUDENCE ensembles, as well as between the present analysis and previous generations of model pro jections. The climate change signal over Europe exhibits a consistent latitudinal and seasonal evolution identified as the European Climate change Oscillation (ECO) by Giorgi and Coppola [F. Giorgi and E. Coppola, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L21703 (2007)]. The changes of temperature and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Giorgi ENVELOPE(-45.133,-45.133,-60.767,-60.767) The European Physical Journal Conferences 1 29 46 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 |
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Physics QC1-999 Giorgi F. Coppola E. Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 |
description |
We present an assessment of climate change pro jections over the European region for the 21st century from the ensembles of CMIP3 global model experiments and PRUDENCE regional climate model experiments. The A2, A1B, and B1 IPCC emission scenarios are considered. A brief review is also presented of the literature available on future European climate pro jections. In all emission scenarios the European region shows maximum warming of up to several degrees C over the Mediterranean region in summer and over northeastern Europe in winter. The precipitation change signal shows a north-south dipolar structure, with increasing precipitation over Northern Europe and decreasing over southern Europe. This structure migrates northward from the winter to the summer and is tied to the north-south motion of an increasing anticyclonic circulation cell over the North Atlantic-European sector. Temperature interannual variability decreases in winter over central and northern Europe and increases in summer throughout Europe. Precipitation interannual variability shows a predominant increase, most pronounced in summer. The seasonal temperature anomaly probability density functions (PDFs) show a shift and a widening and flattening in future climate conditions, especially in summer, which is indicative of pronounced increases of extreme hot seasons. The seasonal precipitation anomaly PDFs show pronounced changes over Southern Europe in summer, with a strong increase of very dry seasons. In general, the magnitude of future climate change increases with the greenhouse gas forcing. A broad consensus is found between the pro jections obtained with the CMIP3 and PRUDENCE ensembles, as well as between the present analysis and previous generations of model pro jections. The climate change signal over Europe exhibits a consistent latitudinal and seasonal evolution identified as the European Climate change Oscillation (ECO) by Giorgi and Coppola [F. Giorgi and E. Coppola, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L21703 (2007)]. The changes of temperature and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Giorgi F. Coppola E. |
author_facet |
Giorgi F. Coppola E. |
author_sort |
Giorgi F. |
title |
Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe |
title_short |
Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe |
title_full |
Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe |
title_fullStr |
Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of twenty-first century climate over Europe |
title_sort |
projections of twenty-first century climate over europe |
publisher |
EDP Sciences |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 https://doaj.org/article/dec3fd58abeb4dcca370102c065491d4 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-45.133,-45.133,-60.767,-60.767) |
geographic |
Giorgi |
geographic_facet |
Giorgi |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
EPJ Web of Conferences, Vol 1, Pp 29-46 (2009) |
op_relation |
dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2100-014X doi:10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 2100-014X https://doaj.org/article/dec3fd58abeb4dcca370102c065491d4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjconf/e2009-00908-9 |
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The European Physical Journal Conferences |
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1 |
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29 |
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46 |
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1766135360727810048 |