Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool.
Implementation of control of parasitic diseases requires accurate, contemporary maps that provide intervention recommendations at policy-relevant spatial scales. To guide control of soil transmitted helminths (STHs), maps are required of the combined prevalence of infection, indicating where this pr...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:de8e54c4113d4969bd8bd2069c4cc8c1 2023-05-15T15:14:43+02:00 Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool. Rachel L Pullan Peter W Gething Jennifer L Smith Charles S Mwandawiro Hugh J W Sturrock Caroline W Gitonga Simon I Hay Simon Brooker 2011-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000958 https://doaj.org/article/de8e54c4113d4969bd8bd2069c4cc8c1 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3035671?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000958 https://doaj.org/article/de8e54c4113d4969bd8bd2069c4cc8c1 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 2, p e958 (2011) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000958 2022-12-31T15:58:38Z Implementation of control of parasitic diseases requires accurate, contemporary maps that provide intervention recommendations at policy-relevant spatial scales. To guide control of soil transmitted helminths (STHs), maps are required of the combined prevalence of infection, indicating where this prevalence exceeds an intervention threshold of 20%. Here we present a new approach for mapping the observed prevalence of STHs, using the example of Kenya in 2009.Observed prevalence data for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were assembled for 106,370 individuals from 945 cross-sectional surveys undertaken between 1974 and 2009. Ecological and climatic covariates were extracted from high-resolution satellite data and matched to survey locations. Bayesian space-time geostatistical models were developed for each species, and were used to interpolate the probability that infection prevalence exceeded the 20% threshold across the country for both 1989 and 2009. Maps for each species were integrated to estimate combined STH prevalence using the law of total probability and incorporating a correction factor to adjust for associations between species. Population census data were combined with risk models and projected to estimate the population at risk and requiring treatment in 2009. In most areas for 2009, there was high certainty that endemicity was below the 20% threshold, with areas of endemicity ≥ 20% located around the shores of Lake Victoria and on the coast. Comparison of the predicted distributions for 1989 and 2009 show how observed STH prevalence has gradually decreased over time. The model estimated that a total of 2.8 million school-age children live in districts which warrant mass treatment.Bayesian space-time geostatistical models can be used to reliably estimate the combined observed prevalence of STH and suggest that a quarter of Kenya's school-aged children live in areas of high prevalence and warrant mass treatment. As control is successful in reducing infection levels, updated models ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 5 2 e958 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Rachel L Pullan Peter W Gething Jennifer L Smith Charles S Mwandawiro Hugh J W Sturrock Caroline W Gitonga Simon I Hay Simon Brooker Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Implementation of control of parasitic diseases requires accurate, contemporary maps that provide intervention recommendations at policy-relevant spatial scales. To guide control of soil transmitted helminths (STHs), maps are required of the combined prevalence of infection, indicating where this prevalence exceeds an intervention threshold of 20%. Here we present a new approach for mapping the observed prevalence of STHs, using the example of Kenya in 2009.Observed prevalence data for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were assembled for 106,370 individuals from 945 cross-sectional surveys undertaken between 1974 and 2009. Ecological and climatic covariates were extracted from high-resolution satellite data and matched to survey locations. Bayesian space-time geostatistical models were developed for each species, and were used to interpolate the probability that infection prevalence exceeded the 20% threshold across the country for both 1989 and 2009. Maps for each species were integrated to estimate combined STH prevalence using the law of total probability and incorporating a correction factor to adjust for associations between species. Population census data were combined with risk models and projected to estimate the population at risk and requiring treatment in 2009. In most areas for 2009, there was high certainty that endemicity was below the 20% threshold, with areas of endemicity ≥ 20% located around the shores of Lake Victoria and on the coast. Comparison of the predicted distributions for 1989 and 2009 show how observed STH prevalence has gradually decreased over time. The model estimated that a total of 2.8 million school-age children live in districts which warrant mass treatment.Bayesian space-time geostatistical models can be used to reliably estimate the combined observed prevalence of STH and suggest that a quarter of Kenya's school-aged children live in areas of high prevalence and warrant mass treatment. As control is successful in reducing infection levels, updated models ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rachel L Pullan Peter W Gething Jennifer L Smith Charles S Mwandawiro Hugh J W Sturrock Caroline W Gitonga Simon I Hay Simon Brooker |
author_facet |
Rachel L Pullan Peter W Gething Jennifer L Smith Charles S Mwandawiro Hugh J W Sturrock Caroline W Gitonga Simon I Hay Simon Brooker |
author_sort |
Rachel L Pullan |
title |
Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool. |
title_short |
Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool. |
title_full |
Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool. |
title_fullStr |
Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Kenya: a disease control planning tool. |
title_sort |
spatial modelling of soil-transmitted helminth infections in kenya: a disease control planning tool. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000958 https://doaj.org/article/de8e54c4113d4969bd8bd2069c4cc8c1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 2, p e958 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3035671?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000958 https://doaj.org/article/de8e54c4113d4969bd8bd2069c4cc8c1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000958 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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2 |
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e958 |
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