A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated?
Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarc...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ddb76824cc374ae2a0fcb786f4d681a9 2023-05-15T13:32:01+02:00 A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? I. Eisenman W. N. Meier J. R. Norris 2014-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ddb76824cc374ae2a0fcb786f4d681a9 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1289/2014/tc-8-1289-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ddb76824cc374ae2a0fcb786f4d681a9 The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 1289-1296 (2014) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014 2022-12-31T13:14:20Z Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the version that was used prior to the mid-2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic The Cryosphere 8 4 1289 1296 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 I. Eisenman W. N. Meier J. R. Norris A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the version that was used prior to the mid-2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
I. Eisenman W. N. Meier J. R. Norris |
author_facet |
I. Eisenman W. N. Meier J. R. Norris |
author_sort |
I. Eisenman |
title |
A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
title_short |
A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
title_full |
A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
title_fullStr |
A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
title_full_unstemmed |
A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
title_sort |
spurious jump in the satellite record: has antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated? |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ddb76824cc374ae2a0fcb786f4d681a9 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 1289-1296 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1289/2014/tc-8-1289-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ddb76824cc374ae2a0fcb786f4d681a9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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8 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1289 |
op_container_end_page |
1296 |
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1766023600708517888 |