2022 real-time Hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFSV0.3S)

• Published in: Frontiers in Earth Science
• Main Authors: Andrew Hazelton, Ghassan J. Alaka, Lew Gramer, William Ramstrom, Sarah Ditchek, Xiaomin Chen, Bin Liu, Zhan Zhang, Lin Zhu, Weiguo Wang, Biju Thomas, JungHoon Shin, Chuan-Kai Wang, Hyun-Sook Kim, Xuejin Zhang, Avichal Mehra, Frank Marks, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023
• Subjects: HAFS; tropical cyclones; numerical modeling; verification; real-time prediction; Science; Q; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969; https://doaj.org/article/dd05a2f179e3456f9d9cae556028dc4d

During the 2022 hurricane season, real-time forecasts were conducted using an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). The version of HAFS detailed in this paper (HAFSV0.3S, hereafter HAFS-S) featured the moving nest recently developed at NOAA AOML, and also model physics upgrades: TC-specific modifications to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and introduction of the Thompson microphysics scheme. The real-time forecasts covered a large dataset of cases across the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific 2022 hurricane seasons, providing an opportunity to evaluate this version of HAFS ahead of planned operational implementation of a similar version in 2023. The track forecast results show that HAFS-S outperformed the 2022 version of the operational HWRF model in the Atlantic, and was the best of several regional hurricane models in the eastern North Pacific for track. The intensity results were more mixed, with a dropoff in skill at Days 4–5 in the Atlantic but increased skill in the eastern North Pacific. HAFS-S also showed some larger errors than the long-time operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model in the radius of 34-knot wind, but other radii metrics are improved. Detailed analysis of Hurricane Ian in the Atlantic highlights both the strengths of HAFS and opportunities for further development and improvement.