Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals
The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate mod...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:dcf3badbda254b8fa05aa9835d9e681c 2023-09-05T13:23:03+02:00 Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals Mark Richardson Kevin Cowtan Richard J Millar 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 https://doaj.org/article/dcf3badbda254b8fa05aa9835d9e681c EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/dcf3badbda254b8fa05aa9835d9e681c Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 5, p 054004 (2018) climate change carbon budgets global warming Paris agreement observational temperature records Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 2023-08-13T00:37:40Z The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO _2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO _2 ). Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 13 5 054004 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change carbon budgets global warming Paris agreement observational temperature records Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change carbon budgets global warming Paris agreement observational temperature records Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Mark Richardson Kevin Cowtan Richard J Millar Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
topic_facet |
climate change carbon budgets global warming Paris agreement observational temperature records Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO _2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO _2 ). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mark Richardson Kevin Cowtan Richard J Millar |
author_facet |
Mark Richardson Kevin Cowtan Richard J Millar |
author_sort |
Mark Richardson |
title |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_short |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_full |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_fullStr |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
title_sort |
global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 https://doaj.org/article/dcf3badbda254b8fa05aa9835d9e681c |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 5, p 054004 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/dcf3badbda254b8fa05aa9835d9e681c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab305 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054004 |
_version_ |
1776203632690069504 |